Mortgage rates saw a dramatic spike Thursday, hitting a nine-month high as resurgent inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict pushed Treasury yields upward.
The average rate on 30-year fixed home loans jumped to 6.51% for the week ending May 21, up 15 basis points from 6.36% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. For perspective, rates averaged 6.86% during the same period in 2025.
“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.51% this week,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “As rates fluctuate, aspiring buyers should remember that by shopping around for the best mortgage rate and getting multiple quotes, they can potentially save thousands.”
The 10-year Treasury yield, which is crucial for mortgage rates, climbed toward 4.67% to start the week, its highest level in over a year, putting renewed upward pressure on borrowing costs. Then on Tuesday, the 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.2%, its highest level in 19 years.
The upward shift followed the release of the April CPI report showing consumer prices up 3.8% year over year, surpassing economists’ expectations, with energy prices rising 17.9% annually as the Iran conflict continues to disrupt oil supply in the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.
“The conflict in the Middle East continues to play an outsized role in how investors are assessing the economic outlook, and mortgage rates are moving accordingly,” says Realtor.com® senior economist Anthony Smith. “In recent weeks, headlines suggesting escalation have tended to push longer-term yields higher, while signs of progress toward resolution have had the opposite effect.”
Smith says it is this dynamic, rather than any domestic policy development, that is the primary force currently shaping borrowing costs.
While a Federal Reserve leadership transition from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh is underway this week, Smith argues that it is unlikely to move the needle on mortgage rates in a meaningful way, given that the chair is just one vote among many.
Additionally, a resurgence in inflation is likely to reinforce caution among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members regardless of leadership.
For buyers, inventory remains significantly up year over year, homes are sitting on the market longer, and list prices have softened in many markets.
“The spring season still offers real opportunity, though each uptick in rates narrows the pool of buyers who can make the numbers work,” adds the economist.
How mortgage rates are calculated
Mortgage rates are determined by a delicate calculus that factors in the state of the economy and an individual’s financial health. They are most closely linked to the 10-year Treasury bond yield, which reflects broader market trends like economic growth and inflation expectations. Lenders reference this benchmark before adding their own margin to cover operational costs, risks, and profit.
When the economy flashes warning signs of rising inflation, Treasury yields typically increase, prompting mortgage rates to increase. Conversely, signs of falling inflation or weakness in the labor market usually send Treasury yields lower, causing mortgage rates to fall.
The mortgage rates you’re offered by a lender, however, go beyond these benchmarks and take some of your personal factors into account.
Your lender will closely scrutinize your financial health—including your credit score, loan amount, property type, size of down payment, and loan term—to determine your risk. Those with stronger financial profiles are deemed as lower risk and typically receive lower rates, while borrowers perceived as higher risk get higher rates.
How your credit score affects your mortgage
Your credit score plays a role when you apply for a mortgage. A credit score will determine whether you qualify for a mortgage and the interest rate you’ll receive. The higher the credit score, the lower the interest rate you’ll qualify for.
The credit score you need will vary depending on the type of loan. A score of 620 is a “fair” rating. However, people applying for a Federal Housing Administration loan might be able to get approved with a credit score of 500, which is considered a low score.
Homebuyers with credit scores of 740 or higher are typically considered to be in very good standing and can usually qualify for better rates, which can reduce monthly payments.
Different types of mortgage loan programs have their own minimum credit score requirements. Some lenders have stricter criteria when evaluating whether to approve a loan. Ultimately, they want to make sure you’re able to pay back the loan.
