Author: Money Mechanics

Link to Report: Macro Volatility DigestWHAT STANDS OUT:Implied volatilities are up across asset classes following the US/Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend. Oil 1M implied volatility jumped 7 pts as oil prices spiked, with skew remaining extremely inverted (i.e. upside bid). As we noted last week, what’s unusual about this latest geopolitically-driven spike in oil prices is the positioning in long-dated oil options. While it’s not uncommon to see skew invert at the front-end of the curve, we’re seeing this extend to 6M options as well which hasn’t happened since the 2022 Russia/Ukraine war. Aside from geopolitics, we also…

Key Takeaways Worries about developments in Iran rattled financial markets Monday, after the U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack over the weekend.The major U.S. equities indexes lost ground, with travel-related stocks leading losses, while defense and oil industry stocks gained. Worries about developments in Iran are rattling financial markets Monday. Early Saturday, the U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran, which retaliated against Israel and U.S. interests in several countries across the Middle East. Yesterday, President Donald Trump said the U.S. plans to continue its combat operations in Iran for several more weeks, raising concerns about a…

Key Takeaways Buying the dip can be a sound strategy for long-term investors, but timing the market perfectly is almost impossible.Retail investors are repositioning selectively into energy and defense rather than broadly buying the market—a sign that even dip-buyers recognize this sell-off carries unusual oil-supply risk.Dollar-cost averaging removes the pressure of timing a bottom that even Wall Street’s best can’t reliably call. When stocks plunged Monday morning after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran over the weekend, freezing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, social media lit up with a familiar refrain: “buy the dip.” “If you’re thinking about…

Key Takeaways The median retirement savings for U.S. workers aged 21 to 64 is just $40,000 for those who have a direct contribution savings account.Social Security benefits make up nearly half of retirees’ income, so deciding when to collect can have a big impact on your retirement security. Many American workers don’t have enough retirement savings. Among American workers aged 21 to 64 with any defined contribution savings, the median balance was $40,000, according to 2023 Census data recently analyzed by the National Institute on Retirement Security. When the researchers included workers without retirement savings, the median amount saved in…

Netflix is about to stop working on millions of older devices, including some smart TVs made before 2015 and legacy streaming hardware. The change is rolling out now, with some devices, like the PlayStation 3, losing access starting March 2.This change reflects a broader industry shift as streaming platforms phase out aging hardware that can’t support newer video formats, security updates or app features. Older TVs and devices often lack the processing power and memory needed to run the latest version of the Netflix app.If your device is affected, Netflix will simply stop working, but you don’t necessarily need a…

Key Takeaways Annuities provide guaranteed lifetime income, addressing the risk of outliving retirement savings.Annuities come with trade-offs, including fees, limited liquidity, and loss of access to principal.Different types of annuities, such as immediate, deferred, fixed, variable, and indexed, cater to varying retirement needs. Americans are living longer, and traditional pensions are disappearing. If you’re facing decades of retirement without a steady paycheck, you need a plan to make your savings last. Annuities convert a lump sum into guaranteed lifetime income, like creating your own pension. But they come with trade-offs, including fees, complexity, and limited liquidity. To decide whether one…

(Image credit: Getty Images)My 26-year-old son recently asked me how to start investing and picking stocks. I gave him some advice and thought I’d share it with you to pass along to your children or grandchildren. Here’s what I told him:1. Honor your goalsYou have a long horizon and, right now, four goals. These may change over time, and you will have other goals. But for now:Have a family — let’s say 5-10 years outOwn a home — 10-15 yearsOwn a business — at least 10-20 yearsRetire — 40 years2. Invest in stocksSet aside 10% of the $50,000 we’ve saved…

Key Takeaways The median home value for 45- to 54-year-olds was $394,000 in 2024.When assessing your situation, remember that home values differ based on region, and what’s affordable varies from family to family. Get personalized, AI-powered answers built on 27+ years of trusted expertise. The median home value among 45-54-year-old owners reached $394,000 in 2024, according to the most recent Census data available. Americans’ home values tend to peak at this age, though circumstances vary widely by region and lifestyle. Don’t overlook such context when evaluating your situation. “For many Americans in their late 40s and early 50s, homeownership is…

DIRTT Environmental Solutions logo DIRTT reported Q4 revenue of $50.9 million (up 4% YoY) with gross margin improving to 36.6%, but posted a net loss of $3.7 million mainly due to $7.6 million of reorganization and impairment charges while Adjusted EBITDA rose to $6.2 million. Liquidity sits at $32.1 million total (including $20.3 million unrestricted cash and $11.8 million undrawn ABL capacity); DIRTT secured a letter of offer with BDC for up to CAD 15 million (first tranche CAD 5.5M received) and guided FY2026 revenue of $194M–$209M with $26M–$31M in Adjusted EBITDA, excluding unforeseen tariff changes. Management emphasized progress on…

The main global economic risk associated with the renewed war against Iran is an energy price spike. (Regional problems are very easy to see.) I discussed energy price spikes in Section 5.4 of Interest Rate Cycles: An Introduction. A very short-term spike would not matter that much, rather the risks are of an extended period of a reduction in energy exports from the region. Once again, political risks emanating from an erratic American executive overwhelms traditional econometric business cycle analysis.It is possible to see a way to a relatively rapid end to this this phase of the conflict — Israel…