February Payrolls Fell, Surprising Economists

Jobs Levels Fall in February

FROM Just Now

The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, according to a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.

That was a major decline from the unexpectedly high 126,000 added in January and far below economists’ expectations that the economy would add 50,000 jobs.

 The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3% in January.

Federal Reserve Officials Will Keep a Close Eye on Today’s Data

FROM 15 minutes ago

The Federal Reserve’s policy committee members will likely have a keen eye on today’s data to help them decide whether to hold the central bank’s key interest rate steady for the second meeting in a row.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on March 17 and 18 to decide whether to cut the federal funds rate from its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The Fed held the rate steady at its January meeting but it lowered it by a quarter of a percentage point at each of the previous three meetings to prevent the recent job market slowdown from turning into a serious increase in unemployment.

-Diccon Hyatt

Unemployment Moves May Not Be So Concerning

FROM 21 minutes ago

Even if the unemployment rate ticks down slightly, it may not be such a big deal. 

That’s according to researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, who highlighted the sometimes-overlooked statistical reality behind one of the most closely-watched figures in economics.

In a blog post Monday, researchers Alexander Bick and Kevin Bloodworth II noted the unemployment rate is based on a survey of 60,000 people by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that, despite being the gold standard of economic statistics, is subject to a certain amount of error and noise. 

“Individual monthly changes, even of 0.2 percentage points, are often too noisy to determine whether they reflect true fluctuations or sampling variation, while sustained movements over three months of at least 0.3 percentage points provide much stronger evidence of genuine labor market trends,” they wrote.

You can read more about the trends here.

-Diccon Hyatt

Health Care Has Been the Engine of the Labor Market

FROM 25 minutes ago

The health care sector has been one of only a few bright spots in the job market lately, and economists see that trend continuing in the near future.

Friday’s report on the job market from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show, once again, that the sector was hale and hearty while other occupations were on life support in February.

In January, for example, the sector added 137,000 jobs, accounting for nearly all the month’s job growth, while other industries lost ground. The same was true over the course of 2025—job growth would have been in the red last year if not for health care pushing it into positive territory.

“This sector is almost certain to dominate job growth again in February,” Dean Baker, senior fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, wrote in a commentary.

Read more about the trend here.

-Diccon Hyatt

What Happened in Last Month’s Jobs Report?

FROM 1 hour ago

U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in January, up from 48,000 in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said last month.

That blew past forecaster expectations for a gain of 55,000 jobs, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%, hitting its lowest since August.

Most of the hiring was in the health care sector, which added 137,000 jobs, offsetting losses in government, finance, and transportation and warehousing. Manufacturing added 5,000 jobs, the first increase in manufacturing employment since November 2024.

-Diccon Hyatt

What Do Economists Expect From Today’s Report? 

FROM 1 hr 37 min ago

The labor market likely maintained its recent pattern in February, with modest job growth alongside a low unemployment rate, in what economists have described as a “low-hire, low-fire” trend.

Friday’s report on the job market from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely to show U.S. employers added 50,000 jobs in February, a decline from the unexpectedly high 130,000 added in January, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

 The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.3%, the lowest level since August.

The data will indicate whether the job market is recovering from its slump last year, which was the slowest year for job creation since 2003 outside of a recession.

“In our view, the labor market remains resilient,” David Sief, chief economist at Nomura, wrote in a commentary. “Signs of stress from late last year appear to be easing, and employment growth is gradually gaining momentum.”

-Diccon Hyatt