What This Means for Your Benefits

Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 will be announced in October, but estimates are already anticipating an increase from this year.

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan group for seniors, announced its estimate on Thursday that the COLA will rise to 2.7% in 2026, up from the 2.5% increase this year. This is the same as the organization’s prediction from August. TSCL accurately predicted the 2025 COLA would be 2.5%.

Others expect a slightly higher increase based on the latest government inflation data. Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, said she believes the COLA will instead be 2.8%.

“Although a slightly lower COLA of 2.7% is possible, there would have to be virtually no inflation growth at all in September,” Johnson said.

The Social Security Administration adjusts benefits based on the cost of living each year. It calculates the adjustments using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August, and September this year and compares them to the same months last year.

A 2.7% COLA would raise the average monthly benefit for retired workers by $54, while a 2.8% COLA would raise it by $54.70.

“That’s apt to look pretty underwhelming to most Social Security recipients,” Johnson said, especially as Medicare Part B premiums are expected to rise in 2026 and could potentially eat up the full COLA increase.

“If there is a small amount left over, most retirees will have competing demands for that money,” she said.