President Donald Trump re-imposed a U.S. blockade on Iran and introduced a 20% toll on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, adding to uncertainty at the key passage to and from the Persian Gulf. At the same time, another steep sell-off for South Korea-based semiconductor stocks undermined “risk on” sentiment stateside.
“All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait. The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as ‘THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,’” the president posted on Truth Social, “but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World.”
The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 8.8% to $77.72 per barrel. The 2-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.269% from 4.208% on Friday and reached a new 52-week high.
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Meanwhile, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index dropped 9.0% on Monday. The KOSPI recently traded into “bear market” territory by declining 20.5% from its record closing high on June 22 through last Wednesday’s close.
“The stock market’s attempt to break out of its six-week consolidation faces a couple of familiar challenges—tech volatility and geopolitics,” E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley managing director Chris Larkin observes. “The ongoing swings in semiconductors has made it difficult for tech to mount a sustained push to the upside, and while the market has so far taken the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in stride, escalating hostilities and rising oil prices won’t help the bullish cause.”
Larkin notes that investors, traders and speculators expect incoming consumer and producer inflation data to show some cooling. “But,” he adds, “the market may not get as much of a boost from good news if traders think oil is headed higher again.”
Big Tuesday
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. That’s less than two hours before new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh makes his first appearance before Congress as mandated by the Federal Reserve Act.
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The act requires the Fed chair to appear twice a year to talk about the central bank’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. Warsh is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and at the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.
Tuesday is also a big day on the earnings calendar, with Bank of America (BAC, -0.2%), Citigroup (C, -0.1%), Goldman Sachs (GS, -0.8%), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, -0.6%) and Wells Fargo (WFC, +0.6%) scheduled to report second-quarter results and offer forward-looking guidance before the opening bell.
SKHY vs AAPL
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, -4.8%) posted a more modest loss, though Nvidia (NVDA, -3.5%) was the worst-performing Dow Jones stock.
Apple (AAPL, +0.6%) traded against Monday’s trend for both the Magnificent 7 stocks and tech generally, touching a new all-time high even as the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS, -1.0%) was well in the red.
Citi Research analyst Asiya Merchant reiterated her Buy rating and raised her 12-month target price for AAPL from $315 to $365, citing the September release of the iPhone 18 as “an important catalyst that could further strengthen investor sentiment.” The iPhone 18 is expected to include Siri AI.
At the closing bell on Monday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 1.6% at 25,873 the broad-based S&P 500 had shed 0.8% at 7,515, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.3% at 52,498.
When FAST is also safe
FAST, which is also scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell on Tuesday, generated a year-to-date total return of 17.1% through July 10 vs 11.4% for the S&P 500. The industrial stock is also up 94.1% and 451.8% over the trailing five- and 10-year periods vs 85.7% and 316.3% for the index.
The Wall Street analyst community is split on FAST: Five Buy, seven Hold and five Sell ratings. But Rothschild & Co. Redburn sees something different here, too.
“An investor who committed $9,000 to purchase 1,000 shares at Fastenal’s IPO in 1987 would today hold shares worth approximately $15.5 million,” analyst William Blunt writes in the March 2026 Redburn Review (pdf), “equating to a compounded annual return of 21.6%, or 22.2% after reinvesting dividends.”
Blunt says the culture established by founder Bob Kierlin, who was CEO for 35 years, is built on frugality. “This disciplined approach to costs has enabled sustained reinvestment,” he adds, “reinforcing a virtuous cycle of profitability and expansion.”
On Monday, Rothschild Redburn initiated coverage of FAST with a Buy rating and a $55 12-month target price.
