The March 2026 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation increased by 0.9% this month, well above the 0.3% from February. These data were released at 8:30 am EST on April 10, 2026, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 3.3%, as higher oil prices had a noticeable impact.
Despite that, this month’s results missed economists’ consensus estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents March’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. As you can see, the data slightly underperformed.
Yet, while a ceasefire has been reached in the U.S.-Iran conflict, the two-week moratorium creates uncertainty for investors, and therefore, the Fed. With oil prices gyrating with every headline, WTI has largely ranged between $115 and $90. And with the former poised to increase headline inflation, it makes it difficult for the FOMC to project a monetary policy path. As a result, while higher CPI prints are expected over the next few months, the duration of the conflict will likely determine the committee’s response.
Food Prices
The food index was flat in March after increasing by 0.4% MoM in February. Four major grocery indices declined this month, while one increased and the other was flat.
- Cereals and bakery products (-0.6%)
- Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (-0.6%)
- Dairy and related products (-0.6%)
- Fruits and vegetables (+1.0%)
- Nonalcoholic beverages (-0.3%)
- Other food at home (+0.0%)
In addition, the food away from home index increased by 0.2%, as restaurant inflation outpaced grocery inflation in March.
Energy Prices
The energy index soared by 10.9% MoM in March, the largest monthly increase since September 2005. Gasoline prices jumped by 21.2% (the largest monthly increase since the series was first published in 1967), while electricity rose by 0.8%, and natural gas fell by 0.9%.
Core CPI
The March core CPI rose by 2.6% Y-o-Y, slightly above the 2.5% print from February. Below is an itemized breakdown of the various components:
- Shelter index: (+0.3%) [February: +0.2%]
- Rent index: (+0.2%) [February: +0.1%]
- Owners’ equivalent rent: (+0.3%) [February: +0.2%]
- Motor vehicle insurance: (0.0%) [February: -0.3%]
- Medical care services: (+0.0%) [February: +0.6%]
- Physician services: (+0.7%) [February: +0.3%]
- Hospital services: (+0.4%) [February: +0.6%]
- Airline fares: (+2.7%) [February: +1.4%]
Seasonally Unadjusted CPI
Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for March 2025 increased by 3.3% Y-o-Y to an index level of 330.213. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results.
Waiting For Clarity
With the U.S.-Iran conflict a tailwind for inflation, resilient economic data makes it easier for the FOMC to take a cautious approach. For example, after the U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, the March Employment Situation report was much more optimistic. The release noted how nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 in March and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%.
Moreover, the figures easily surpassed economists’ consensus estimates (the numbers on the right), and even though wage inflation decelerated, it still outpaced the Y-o-Y CPI in March.
In addition, ADP’s weekly employment tracker has remained resilient, with the firm noting on Apr. 7 that “For the four weeks ending March 21, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 26,000 jobs a week. It was the third straight week of improvement in hiring.”
As such, while February was a struggle, the employment data in March held strong, despite the ongoing conflict and its impact on commodity prices and business sentiment.
Finally, the Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (WEI) has actually increased since the onset of the war, and has slowly crept higher since bottoming in 2023. For context, “The WEI is a composite of 10 weekly economic indicators” that uses “timely and relevant high-frequency data” to create “a single index of weekly economic activity.” In a nutshell: it uses consumer, labor market, and production data to gauge the strength of the U.S. economy. And with the metric still relatively elevated, it hasn’t signaled any stress as of Apr. 4.
Turning to the financial markets, while gold has corrected sharply amid the recent volatility, Goldman Sachs still expects the yellow metal to hit $5,400 by the end of 2026.
To explain, the investment bank sees speculative trading flows adding $195, 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts adding $120, and more central bank purchases adding $535. Add it all up, and there could be plenty of upside once the war uncertainty dissipates.
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Alex Demolitor is a Canadian financial writer hailing from Halifax, NS. Alex has a Bachelors Degree from King’s College and passed the CFA Exam Level III. He specializes in fundamental analysis of the stock, bond, commodity, and FX markets. He also covers US & Canadian economic indicators.
