In-brief analysis
May 28, 2026
We forecast natural gas consumption by the U.S. electric power sector this summer will remain near recent highs and set a record next summer in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Despite a 2% increase in overall U.S. electricity demand this summer, we expect natural gas-fired electricity generation to be similar to last summer, primarily because of forecast increased generation from renewables. In the May STEO, we forecast natural gas consumed by the U.S. electric power sector will average 43.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during the summer (June–September), the same as in the summer of 2025, and 4% above the five-year summer average (2021–2025). We forecast natural gas consumption for power generation will increase 6% (2.4 Bcf/d) during the summer of 2027 to 46.1 Bcf/d, surpassing the previous record set in 2024 by 3%.
Electricity consumption is highest during the summer months because of cooling needs across all sectors. The record-high natural gas consumption we forecast for the summer of 2027 is primarily driven by increasing sales of electricity to the commercial and industrial sectors in the West South Central and Mid-Atlantic regions. We forecast demand in the commercial sector to grow nationally because of the addition of new data centers and large manufacturing facilities—particularly in Texas (driving up demand in ERCOT) and Virginia (driving up demand in PJM). These facilities require large amounts of electricity for both operation and cooling.
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2026
Note: ISO=Independent System Operator
We expect commercial and industrial electricity demand in the West South Central region to rise 20% from the summer of 2025 to the summer of 2027. In addition to increasing commercial demand, electricity demand from the region’s industrial sector is expected to increase in 2027 because of growing electrification in the oil and natural gas sector and other industrial projects. We forecast the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which manages the grid for most of Texas, will meet the rising demand with more generation from both natural gas and solar. From the summer of 2025 to the summer of 2027, we expect ERCOT to increase natural gas generation 22%.
The PJM Interconnection, which operates the electrical grid across the Mid-Atlantic, has steadily increased its natural gas consumption for electricity generation over the past decade as the region’s power demand has increased and as natural gas-fired generation became more competitive with coal. We expect this trend to continue alongside increased commercial sector demand from computing facilities. Natural gas consumption for electricity generation in PJM is forecast to increase by 6% (9 BkWh) in the summer of 2027 relative to the summer of 2025, and solar generation is forecast to increase 32% (4 BkWh) over the same period.
The trend toward more generation from a combination of natural gas and renewables and less from coal has also played out nationwide. Over the past decade, the U.S. electricity generation mix during the summer has steadily shifted from coal to natural gas and renewables, particularly solar.
We expect renewables will make up 25% of generation in 2027, compared with 21% in 2025.
Principal contributor: Trinity Manning-Pickett
