This Week
Once again, developments in the Iran conflict moved markets this week — overshadowing most macro news.
The key developments in the Iran conflict this week were that:
- President Trump said twice that the conflict would end in “two weeks, maybe three.”
- Iran’s President Pezeshkian said he was ready to end the conflict, providing “essential conditions” were met.
- President Trump said at different times that reopening the Strait of Hormuz was and was not necessary to end the conflict.
Given these signs that both sides are open to a near-term resolution, markets rebounded this week, with the Nasdaq-100® up 4%, while 10-year Treasury yields are down over 10 basis points to 4.3%.
Next Week
Here are the top events I’m watching in the next week:
- Tomorrow: Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar.), S&P Services PMI (Mar.)
- Monday: ISM Services PMI (Mar.)
- Wednesday: Fed Minutes (Mar.)
- Thursday: PCE Inflation (Feb.), Real Consumer Spending (Feb.), Real GDP (Q4, 3rd print), Jobless Claims
- Friday: CPI Inflation (Mar.), UMich Consumer Sentiment (Apr. Prelim.)
