Takeaway: Headline inflation, which includes food and energy prices, spiked in March, but rates won’t move much today because core inflation, which ignores those volatile components, remained subdued.
The closing of the Strait of Hormuz led to a 0.9% monthly increase (3.3% annual increase) in prices in March, but there is little evidence so far that is bleeding through to other prices, which is what the Fed cares about.
- Gas prices surged 21% and fuel oil 31% in the March inflation data. These spikes were forecasted accurately by market observers ahead of time and the implications have been priced in by bond markets these past six weeks, so there is little market reaction to this data.
- Fed officials are mainly concerned with core inflation, which removes the volatile food and energy categories, because these underlying inflationary measures are what responds to interest rate changes. That came in slightly below expectations with a 0.2% monthly increase (2.6% annual increase) in prices.
- The softness was driven in part by a large 1.0% monthly decline in prescription drug prices and -1.5% monthly decline in non-prescription drugs
- Shelter, the largest component of the overall index, ticked up to 0.3% monthly because of an unwind of the 0% shelter inflation assumptions the Bureau of Labor Statistics made six months ago after the October government shutdown.
- Overall, there is little evidence of the energy price spike affecting other categories yet. However, airline fares, an especially energy-sensitive sector, jumped 2.7% monthly. There is also some evidence of continued tariff rollback, with household goods prices soft.
There’s been some fear among investors that the Fed may have to hike rates this year, which this report should help to alleviate. Overall, similar to the recent jobs reports, today’s data along with the volatility in the Middle East, point to the Fed holding steady for a while.
