Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has issued its extended range forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, saying it currently anticipates activity levels around the 30-year norm, projecting 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
This first forecast for hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin for 2026 is almost the same as the one TSR issued a year ago for 2025.
In December 2024, TSR called for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes in the 2025 season, with a forecast for an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 129.
In the end the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season resulted in 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, with ACE reaching 133.
For the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, beginning June 1st next year, TSR forecasts 14 named tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 125.
This is again a forecast for activity levels close to the 1991-2020 30-year norm.
TSR also said that for the 2026 hurricane season it currently gives a 32% probability that the ACE index will be in the upper tercile (greater than 156), a 49% likelihood the ACE index will be in the middle tercile (between 75-156), and a 19% chance the ACE index will be in the lower tercile (below 75).
TSR explained, “The factors influencing the TSR extended forecast for 2026 North Atlantic hurricane activity to be close to the 1991-2020 climatology are the anticipated warm-neutral ENSO conditions through summer and autumn 2025, and for warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region and Caribbean Sea. It should be noted that uncertainties at this lead time are large and the forecast skill is historically low at this lead time.”
These long and extended range forecasts, are more informational at this very early stage, as conditions in the Atlantic and in the global climatology have plenty of time to change before next June.
As was seen with this year’s season, the forecasts adjusted over time.
TSR’s first extended range forecast was for the aforementioned 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
Then, in an April 2025 forecast, TSR called for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Then in May it was increased to 16 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
In July it was dialled back, to 15 named tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, so the same as the original extended range forecast.
Finally, in August 2025, it was raised again to 16 named tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
We ended up with 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes in the 2025 Atlantic season.
So it’s clear these fluctuate over time, as conditions change and also that predicting hurricane or storm numbers is no easy task.
As a result, these are largely considered directional until much nearer to the start of the hurricane season and for some right through the season in fact.
The insurance, reinsurance and ILS industry tend to focus on the conditions that steer disturbances into areas for favourable development, the conditions in those regions, as well as the steering currents that may take storms towards land, plus factors from sea-surface temperatures through to wind shear.
Predicting hurricanes is not an easy task and really it is the forecast models that tend to see the most focus, so when a disturbance looks to have a chance of forming that is when the industry starts to run its forecast models and look at the often wide range of potential outcomes.
However, a study from catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities investment manager Euler ILS Partners and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) highlighted that the July forecast, just at the start of the hurricane season, can provide a useful input to portfolio and hedging decision making for insurance-linked securities (ILS) funds.
