In A Nutshell: Rates drifted higher last week following Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference and could remain volatile as oil prices drop on hopes of Iran peace talks and markets absorb the latest jobs market data.
Upcoming Attractions
The first week of the month always brings a slew of labor market data, including the all important jobs report on Friday. Leading up to that, we also get data on job openings, quits and layoffs. Economists are expecting the BLS to report a small increase in the number of jobs created in July, after a big disappointment in June. All in all, the data is expected to show a firm labor market, neither very tight nor very weak.
There are also a number of speaking engagements with Fed officials this week. Since Chair Warsh has refused to comment on the why and how behind policy actions, markets are focused on the other 18 members of the FOMC, 11 of whom also vote at each meeting, to gauge where the committee might be headed. Specifically, markets are keenly interested in whether they might hike in September and, if so, how many hikes are on the docket.
Last Week’s Highlights
The main event last week was Wednesday’s Fed meeting where the committee left rates on hold despite markets pricing in about a 30% chance of a hike. In the hours and days afterwards, the main reaction from investors was disappointment in Chair Powell’s press conference. Many were concerned that he refused to explain the Fed’s thinking, how they would bring inflation back to target and whether they even planned to stick to PCE as their preferred measure of inflation. The lack of precision in Warsh’s comments drove long-term rates–such as the 10 year Treasury yields that mortgage rates are closely tied to–higher as investors became worried about the Fed’s commitment to keeping inflation low in the long run.
