The Shiller/CAPE ratio chart. The US stock market is outrageously overvalued but…
It’s nowhere near as horrifically overvalued as the US government bond market.
In 1979, at the height of the last 40year stagflation cycle, 15% rates meant the government’s interest payments on its debt (of about $800 billion) were $120 billion, or approximately 25% of its annual revenues.
Today, 15% rates on its $40 trillion of debt would be $6 trillion, more than the roughly $5 trillion in annual revenues… which is more than 100% of those revenues.
In a nutshell, rate hikes of significance would obliterate the US government and the only question is… if/when it eventually happens, how many citizens will have successfully protected themselves from the mayhem with supreme money ?
The long-term chart of the . Artificially low rates and money printing have allowed the stock market to become overvalued and it has occurred…
At the same time as the government has ramped up its debt and refused to add any fresh gold to its tiny (relative to the size of the economy) gold holdings.
The disturbing long-term US rates chart. A collapse in the stock market at the same time as a spike in inflation occurs would crush government tax revenues and drive interest rate payments high enough to create a government bankruptcy event.
It’s the world’s biggest debt-oriented powder keg and gold revaluation would likely fail to resolve the situation. Here’s why:
In 1940, America’s population was about 130 million and the government had around 20,000 tons of gold. Now, with the nation’s population at almost 350 million, it has only 8000 tons.
GDP is now about 300 times bigger (in fiat terms) than it was in 1940, yet the government is backstopping it with 60% less gold.
The only solution, the only hope to avoid financial Armageddon really, is a new gold buy program (starting at around 50 tons per month) coupled with an ongoing reduction in government spending.
The short-term hourly chart for gold. Given the oversold condition of weekly chart Stochastics and the price action on this chart, traders and investors alike should be open to a double bottom forming at about 4000.
That could be followed with a surge to the pattern’s price target of $4700-$4900.
In the big picture, the immediate focus for savvy gold bugs should be $3900 and $3500 for buying “investor-grade” positions.
The key Stochastics oscillator (14,5,5 series) has finally become oversold again. It can turn up quickly… or take some time to do so.
A look at the daily chart. This chart highlights the three buy zones (so far) in 2026 for gold stock and bullion swing traders.
The first was the price sale into $4400 support in early February, the second was the Dow dip into 45,000 support… and the third was the dip into $4100/$4000 support for gold.
Silver swing traders have done very well so far in 2026 if they bought the three big support zones for gold and the Dow.
Many stocks surged 30%-100% from the buy zones of importance, basis gold and the Dow.
All three buy opportunities were also followed by near-immediate 20%+ surges in the price of the gold stocks ETF. Compounded, gold stock traders have a 60% gain for the year and…
There’s still 6 months to go!
It’s unknown what the next ominous short-term event in the ongoing fiat and debt-themed bankruptcy of the US government process will be. All that is really known are the key buy zones for gold, silver, and some marvellous miners. The only question today is whether the savviest gold bugs have the confidence to buy with gusto in these key zones… and I’ll suggest the answer is yes!
