Fresh peace talks between the United States and Iran were unexpectedly cancelled, raising new questions around the durability of the recent ceasefire agreement.
The talks, which were scheduled to take place in Switzerland on Friday, were called off shortly after U.S. Vice President JD Vance withdrew from the meeting. The discussions were expected to revolve around Iran’s nuclear program, building on a memorandum of understanding signed by both countries to end their recent conflict.
Iranian media reported that Tehran wants clearer evidence that Washington is implementing the terms of the agreement before committing to another round of negotiations. While the cancellation does not necessarily mean the peace deal is collapsing, it highlights that tensions between the two countries are still unresolved.
fell again in London trading on Friday and were on track for their sharpest weekly decline in months, as the U.S.-Iran deal boosted anticipation for a potential influx of oil supplies.
Both benchmarks are set to lose nearly 10% this week and are trading near their lowest levels since early March. The U.S.-Iran conflict first began in late February.
Crucially, the U.S.-Iran agreement calls for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas that has been effectively shuttered throughout much of the war.
But fears remain that a renewed conflict could put pressure on energy supplies, reignite inflation concerns, and create volatility across global markets.
However, a more hawkish pivot by a raft of central banks suggests that policymakers may be prioritizing fighting inflation, possibly weakening liquidity support for a bull market in precious metals.
In recent days, a series of major global central banks held fresh interest rate decisions, with officials often citing price pressures linked to the Iran war as a key driver behind their borrowing cost calibrations.
The European Central Bank began by raising rates for the first time since 2023, followed by the Bank of Japan, which rolled out a hike that brought rates to their highest level since 1995.
Both the ECB and BOJ flagged a desire to respond to signs that an energy shock brought on by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may be leading to a broader acceleration in inflation.
This week, the Federal Reserve kept rates steady, but nine members of the world’s most-watched central bank projected increases later this year, compared to none in a prior forecast unveiled in March. The first statement under new Chair Kevin Warsh also explicitly referenced a wish to achieve “price stability,” removing any mention of ensuring maximum employment, the Fed’s other traditional policy mandate.
The Bank of England also left rates unchanged on Thursday, but the vote split retained a hawkish bias despite softer recent inflation and labor market data, the Barclays analysts said.
Upon evaluating movements of the on different time-frame charts, I observed that gold futures, after testing a record peak at $5,643.29, are on a sliding path at a sixty-degree angle since January 2026,
While this month has added one more bearish leg, despite testing a high at $4,577.30, gold futures have tested a new low at $4,046.20, trading at $4,173.25, signalling a possible breakdown below the tested low could push the futures to test the next support at the 20 EMA ($3,885) as fear of renewed escalation is still intact on Friday due to postponed peace talks.
Technical Levels to Watch
On a monthly chart, gold futures are still on a 78-degree slide, and after finding a breakdown below the key support at the 9 EMA ($4,368), look ready to test the next key support at the 20 EMA ($3,885), signalling a breakdown below this key level could intensify selling.
On a weekly chart, gold futures, after opening this week at $4,289.40, tested a high at $4,403.60, and a low at $4,139,20, are trading at $4,173.25, below the key support at the 50 EMA ($4,264) due to the formation of a “Bearish Crossover” as the 9 EMA ($4,457.88) has pierced the 20 EMA ($4,545), while the gold futures are trading much below the 9 EMA, and look ready to find a breakdown below the immediate support at $4,124).
On a daily chart, after opening the day at $4,207.47, tested the day’s high at $4,216.90, and a low at $4,139.20, gold futures are trading at $4,173.25, much below the key support at the 200 EMA ($4,305.84) due to the formation of a “Bearish Crossover” as the 9 EMA ($4,281.10), 20 EMA ($4,365.42) and 50 EMA ($4,512) have pierced the 100 EMA ($4,553.64), and look ready to move below the immediate support at $4,24.19) today.
Undoubtedly, Friday’s closing level will define further directional moves, but weekend developments matter a lot as President Trump takes a sudden shift, especially on weekends.
I conclude that if the gold futures break the immediate support at $4,124, the next two hours could see a heavy sell-off, but the closing level matters a lot.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take a position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is solely based on observations.
