The median U.S. home price will likely hit $1 million around the year 2050, when the millennial generation is hitting the traditional age of retirement, a top housing economist has predicted.
“Essentially, in about 25 years the national median home price will be a million dollars,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors®, said at a conference in Washington, DC, on Tuesday. “It may be hard to envision that, but back in 1990, the national median price was $90,000.”
Yun noted that even San Francisco, considered an exorbitantly priced real estate market at the time, had a median price of only $250,000 in 1990.
Last month, the national median sales price for existing homes was nearly $430,000. Yun used multiple scenarios to project home prices out into the future, and says each scenario pointed to roughly the same timeline to hit $1 million: about 25 years.
“Homeowners will continue to build wealth, while renters are simply spinning their wheels,” Yun said, addressing NAR members at the group’s annual Legislative Meetings conference.
Yun says he does not expect an economic recession to hit the U.S. in 2026, projecting job gains for the year at a solid 400,000.
His 2026 housing market forecast remained unchanged since he last revised it in April, when he made a sharp downward revision to projected home sales for the year in response to surging interest rates.
The economist now expects mortgage rates to average 6.5% across 2026, roughly where they sit now. He sees home prices rising 4% this year, up slightly from the 3% gain recorded in 2025.
Yun now projects existing-home sales transaction volume will grow 4% from the 30-year low reached in 2025, as higher interest rates kept the market frozen.
Although mortgage rates have surged off the three-year lows they touched in late February, rates remain modestly lower than they were a year ago, breathing some life into the housing market.
Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, says that certain segments of buyers remain active in the market despite ongoing affordability challenges.
“I’ve been traveling around the nation this year, and I am hearing a lot from you that it’s a really wonky market,” Lautz said at the event on Tuesday. “You’ll list a home on the market, and sometimes it’ll sit for months. And sometimes it’s going to have multiple offers, and they can be next door to each other.”
Lautz described a surprisingly wide range of buyers who remain active even in a “wonky” market.
They include boomers who bought once decades ago and never sold before, young owners who bought condos during COVID at ultra‑low rates and now want to trade up, and renters who have pets and need space or a yard.
“We talk incessantly about first-time homebuyers. What about first-time sellers?” Lautz said, noting that 17% of younger baby boomers who sold this year had never sold a property before.
However, she noted that baby boomers are “not really downsizing” as they hit retirement. Younger boomers are often buying homes with similar square footage, just in different locations, often near their grandchildren, says Lautz.
Lautz also addressed persistent myths about down payments that she says might be holding back some potential buyers.
“Misinformation is out there,” Lautz said, noting that many potential buyers still believe they need a 20% down payment. “The typical down payment for first-time homebuyers was just 10% last year.”
