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After 45 years in the financial services industry, through booms, busts, bubbles and breakthroughs, I’ve learned that the most reliable compass in personal finance is surprisingly simple.
I focus on two aspects of financial planning that are in my complete control:
- My awareness of how I spend my money
- The asset allocation I choose for my portfolio
Even though it has taken me a few bear markets to figure it out, it is a compass that now guides me through market cycles, and it’s one I return to even more often today, in a world that feels increasingly uncertain — economically, politically and globally.
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The truth is, the headlines will never settle down. There will always be a new crisis, a new election, a new geopolitical flare-up, or a new prediction about where the market is headed next.
But none of us — not even the most seasoned professionals — can control the timing of the next recession or the severity of the next bear market. What we can control is how we prepare for it, how we respond to it, and how we align our financial lives with what genuinely matters.
Start with what you can see: Your spending
One of the most powerful forms of control is simply becoming aware of how you spend your money. Not through a lens of scarcity, but in a spirit of abundance — a mindset that asks:
- Does this spending bring me joy?
- Does it reflect my values?
- Does it support the life I want to live?
Popular media encourages us to chase the next upgrade, the next gadget, the next “must-have” item. But in my experience, the most meaningful spending is rarely material. It is the trip with family. The dinner with friends. The hobby that brings you alive. The causes you care about. The experiences that deepen your relationships.
Awareness is the first step. Once you see where your dollars are going, you can redirect them toward the things that matter most.
In doing so, you strengthen the most important pillar of financial stability: Living within your means.
Everything else — investing, saving, planning — becomes easier when this foundation is solid.
Control your asset allocation — not the market
The second major area of control is your asset allocation. You can’t control the stock market, but you can control how much of your portfolio is exposed to it.
At this stage in my life, I’m more conservative than I ever imagined I would be. I often joke that I’m more conservative than I can emotionally stand — and I hope I’m wrong. I hope the market continues its impressive long-term climb. But I also know that hope is not a strategy.
What is a strategy is understanding how much your portfolio might decline in the next bear market. Historically, deep bear markets can take stocks down 40% or more. So, I ask myself two questions:
- Financially. Will I ever need to sell stocks in a down market to pay my utility bills or cover essential expenses?
- Emotionally. How will I feel watching my portfolio decline during a severe downturn?
These are not theoretical questions. They are deeply personal ones. And the answers shape how much risk I choose to take, because I am fairly certain I will be faced with a few more bear markets in my lifetime.
By keeping enough in conservative assets — bonds, cash reserves and other lower-volatility holdings — I ensure that I can weather the next downturn without being forced into selling at the worst possible time.
By keeping the rest in equities, I maintain the long-term growth potential necessary to reach my goals.
This balance is different for everyone. But the key is that you get to choose it. You get to design a portfolio that matches your needs, your temperament and your timeline.
Bear markets will come — but they don’t have to control you
Since 1982, we’ve lived through multiple bear markets, each triggered by a different economic event — recessions, bubbles, credit crises, a pandemic. The causes change, but the pattern doesn’t: Markets fall, markets recover, and long-term investors who stay disciplined are rewarded.
You don’t need to predict the next downturn to prepare for it. You simply need to build a plan that assumes it will happen — because it will — and ensures you can ride it out.
The freedom of focusing on what you can control
When you shift your attention away from the noise and toward the levers you can actually pull, something remarkable happens: Your financial life becomes calmer, clearer and more aligned with your values.
- You control how you spend
- You control how much you save
- You control your asset allocation
- You control your response to volatility
- You control whether you live within your means
And ultimately, you control whether your money supports a life of meaning, joy and purpose — or whether it becomes a source of stress and distraction.
After four and a half decades in this field, I can say with confidence that the most successful investors are not the ones who predict the market correctly. They are the ones who consistently focus on what they can control, year after year, decision after decision.
It’s not glamorous. It’s not headline-worthy. But it works.
