As of May 9, the US-Iran conflict has reached its seventieth day, with no clear indication of a potential peace agreement. Even in developed economies, households are reducing savings to sustain living standards, as increased costs associated with the Iran conflict are being directly transferred to consumers.
Despite the fresh exchange of fire, President Donald Trump maintained that a fragile ceasefire remains in effect. However, the military action underscores the volatility surrounding the “Project Freedom” initiative to open the Strait and the ongoing blockade of Iranian ports.
According to U.S. Central Command, the strikes on the vessels Sea Star III and Sevda were designed to prevent Iran from using empty tankers as floating storage to circumvent energy sanctions.
What Iranian sources are telling us is that they have a three-phase approach.
In the first phase, over 30 days, they suggest negotiating a permanent end to the war on all fronts. So, when they say on all fronts, they mean including Hezbollah in Lebanon.
I observe that firm oil prices could continue to extend inflationary pressure on gold prices.
And that is something difficult for the Americans to give a guarantee on, because just yesterday we heard from Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying Hezbollah’s future cannot be determined by Iran.
However, Iran is insisting that this “axis of resistance”, or its members, its non-state allies in the region, also need to receive the guarantees.
Then Iran is asking for a guarantee that the war is not going to be renewed.
That is also another difficulty for the US, because the Iranians are consistently insisting that this guarantee must come from the United Nations Security Council.
Then, there is lifting the US blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
But when they talk about the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranians are insisting that the strategic environment has changed, and Iran, in one way or another, is not going to let the situation return to the pre-war one, and it’s going to keep its control over the strait.
This is also another really difficult thing for the Americans to observe, and for many regional countries to accept.
And, of course, the Iranians are not accepting to dismantle their nuclear facilities and to ship out their already enriched uranium.
These are the main sticking points at the moment.
On the other hand, U.S. job growth was more than expected in April, government data showed on Friday, while the unemployment rate stayed flat.
The April jobs report comes at a time when market participants and watchers of monetary policy are more focused on inflation due to surging oil prices sparked by the ongoing Middle East conflict.
While the April jobs report continued to hint at a mostly solid U.S. labor market, markets have been focused on oil prices, which have spiked since the start of the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran at the end of February, leading to a rise in headline inflation across the world.
I conclude that currently going on clashes in Hormuz could extend as the peace deal seems to stuck between the US and Iran as the three sticking points between US and Iran: Uranium, Strait of Hormuz, and Hezbollah are likely to remain unresolved while Israel is consistently attacking on Lebanon, and US President Donald Trump look not interested enough to controlling Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu who actually started this war with Iran while the United State was not a party in this truce at the beginning.
Now, Iran is using the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic tool to meet the expenses of rebuilding its infrastructure, destroyed by the US and Iran since the beginning of this war on February 28, 2026.
Undoubtedly, Alarming Energy Crises ( ) have extended the inflationary pressure globally, which could be a challenging task for the global central banks this year, and could keep the rate cut hopes at the back foot, while some central banks have kept the interest rates on hold, while others have hiked the interest rates.
Technical Levels to Watch
On 1-Hr. Chart, gold futures closed last Friday with some bearish formations during the last hours. These are likely to create a gap-down opening on upcoming Monday, as I have discussed the impact of such formations in detail in my previous analysis, : Bearish Signals Emerge as Geopolitical Tensions Keep Downside Risks Alive ( ) on May 2, 2026.
On the daily chart, gold futures could remain firm if they sustain above the immediate resistance at the 50 EMA ($4,741), as an attempt to test the next resistance at $4,854.
Inversely, a breakdown below the immediate support at $4,641.63 could push the futures to test the next support at $4,520.65, where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next support at $4,399.
On weekly chart, despite closing this week with some gains, gold futures found significant selling pressure above the immediate resistance at the 9 EMA ($4,752), and closed the week just above the pivotal point at $4,636, signalling a breakdown below this pivotal point next week, could push the futures to test the next supports at $4,521.64 and $4,399 where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next support at the 50 EMA ($4,227).
Inversely, any bouncing move above the immediate resistance at the 9 EMA (4,752) could attract bears above the significant resistance at $4,843.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is solely based on observations.
