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Once or twice a century, a single catalyst reorders the entire economic landscape: The steam engine revolution. Mass electrification. The silicon chip.
Today, it’s artificial intelligence, and we’re standing at the absolute baseline.
As an investor backing the architects of OpenAI, SpaceX and Figure AI, I’m often bombarded by a singular, reflexive fear: Is this a speculative bubble? Is the 2000 crash happening again?
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My answer is “no.” But to move past the skepticism, we must acknowledge that, unlike the dot-com era, when many of the companies were just ideas and hype, today’s AI actually does useful work and generates real value.
The 2000 tech bubble was practically built on fictional value. It was driven by companies that had a “.com” in their names even when they had no revenue, no profits and often no functional product. That’s not what we’re seeing with AI.
Look at the companies leading this shift. SpaceX, for example, handles 80% of all U.S. space launches, up from 20% a decade ago. Anduril is executing billions in signed government defense contracts. OpenAI scaled ChatGPT to 100 million users faster than any other application in history.
These are all high-revenue machines with massive market share and defensible moats. To critics focused on immediate profitability, I wish you’d recognize that history shows that transformative companies rarely go public while profitable; they prioritize scale.
The real question isn’t about cash flow anymore, but who’s building the essential infrastructure for the next century.
What most investors miss about valuation
When investors tell me Tesla is overvalued because of declining car sales, I ask them a question: Where do you think Apple makes most of its money? It’s not selling phones. It’s the App Store, taking 30% of every download, every in-app purchase, every subscription. The hardware created the platform; the platform creates the recurring revenue.
Tesla is building the same playbook. The cars are the platform. The software is the business.
- Full self-driving subscriptions at $99 per month across millions of vehicles
- Robotaxis that could operate 24/7 without labor costs
This is how you need to evaluate AI investments. Don’t focus on what a company does today. Focus on what infrastructure it’s building for tomorrow.
Data centers in space, which SpaceX is positioning to build, could power AI computation at a fraction of Earth-based costs because space is cooler (no expensive cooling systems) and has unlimited solar power.
The train is leaving the station
I keep hearing investors say they want to wait until things “settle down” before investing in AI. But by the time it settles down, the opportunity has passed.
If you’re waiting for certainty, you’re waiting too long. Navigating this shift requires a disciplined execution framework.
Start by auditing your current exposure. If you hold an S&P 500 index fund, nearly a third of your capital is already concentrated in the Magnificent 7. You’re already an AI investor by default. It’s up to you whether you have the conviction to move beyond these benchmarks into more aggressive, concentrated positions.
Growth behind closed doors
Once you decide to lean in, distinguish between your entry points. Public markets offer the safety of liquidity and access to established titans, but the most explosive growth happens behind closed doors.
However, this path requires your mindset to shift to a long-game mentality, typically with seven-to-10-year horizons and capital commitments starting at $250,000.
Regardless of the entry point, you must demand fundamental proof over hype. When an AI startup crosses my desk, I move past the marketing tactics and zero in on the costly problems they’re fixing and whether they have actual, validated revenue or are hiding behind a polished pitch deck.
Worthy investments should provide essential utility, not just “potential.” NVIDIA, for example, dominates today because it produces the physical silicon the world needs to function.
Finally, ensure that your enthusiasm never overrides your mathematical discipline. High-growth private exposure is a powerful tool, but for the majority of investors, it should be capped at 10% to 30% of investable assets, depending on the net worth of the investor.
High conviction is not an excuse for poor risk management. You still need liquidity for your life and diversification for your protection, and your goal is to ensure you’ll thrive even when the tide turns.
The real risk isn’t AI — it’s ignoring it
I often hear of alarmist claims that AI is coming for people’s jobs. Having backed such companies as OpenAI, SpaceX and Figure AI at pivotal inflection points, here’s what I’d tell you: AI won’t replace you; someone using AI will.
Ten years from now, we’ll look back at this moment exactly as we did the arrival of the iPhone. There will be the visionaries who recognized the shift and immediately capitalized on it, and there will be the doubters who hesitated until adaptation became a matter of pure survival.
We’ll remember those who refused to let go of their Nokias or BlackBerrys while the rest of the world transitioned to the smartphone era. Perhaps they managed to stay connected, but they failed to thrive as market infrastructure evolved around them.
These massive data centers, advanced silicon, autonomous systems and space-based computing, all infrastructure currently under construction, are now the bedrock of the economy.
The companies engineering this foundation are the railroads and oil refineries of the 21st century. If you aren’t building on this infrastructure, you are falling behind.
The opinions expressed in this material are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Any such offer may be made only pursuant to a confidential private placement memorandum. Investments are speculative and involve substantial risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Prospective investors should consult their own financial, legal, and tax advisors before investing.
