Oil prices are surging after Qatar’s Energy Minister has issued dire warnings that is sending shockwaves through global energy markets. In an interview with the Financial Times, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned that Gulf countries could be compelled to stop energy exports within weeks, causing major disruptions to global supply chains. Kaabi stated that he anticipates all Gulf energy producers will halt exports soon, which could push oil prices up to $150 per barrel. “We expect everyone who hasn’t yet declared force majeure will do so in the coming days if this situation persists. All Gulf region exporters will likely call force majeure,” Kaabi told the Financial Times. Recent projections suggest that natural gas prices may surge to $40 per MMBtu (€117 per Mwh), in Europe/ Asia and crude oil could reach $150 per barrel within two to three weeks. Is there anything we can do to stop this are we all just doomed to this predicted price spike?
These alarming predictions come amid mounting concerns over rising fuel costs in the United States, where the Treasury Department is considering unprecedented measures to curb energy prices, including lifting some restriction on India to allow them to buy Russian oil and use the futures market as a way to cool speculative fervor.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on X that the Treasury Department is granting a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to buy Russian oil, stating, “To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil.” Bessent emphasized this is a “short-term measure” and clarified it “would not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea.”
Yet what really caught the market’s attention was that the report may use the futures market to trade oil. The saying goes “don’t fight the Fed”—but is it now “don’t fight the Treasury”? Oil futures actually declined after reports that the US Treasury Department trade oil futures which could actually be a market game changer. In fact in some ways it might be more effective to cool market fever than an actual release of strategic petroleum reserve barrels it will be has unlimited the power to print money to back its position the Treasury Department has limited supplies of oil in the United States to back its position and would have to be coordinated with the White House to be used but the government could also you swaps to actually make a delivery or just cover its futures position as many other hedgers and users of oil and products do and not only oil perhaps they could influence the price of diesel which is particularly vulnerable right now as well as gasoline . And the reason the market uses futures instead of physical barrels is that it reduces the need to buy and sell physical barrels and move them it’s a lot more efficiently to do it financially so there’s no doubt that Treasury Secretary Scott it’s A and the trump administration think outside the box with this unique an historically unprecedented potential move.
And I believe just like a currency intervention that the treasury has the ability to do and other central banks around the globe do it could be very effective if used at the core correct moment in fact if you look at the barrel of oil many people view oil as kind of a currency a currency that can be used has fancied themselves as the central bank of oil former OPEC secretary general Ali Naimi used to be called the Alan Greenspan of oil and he would try to use Opec’s oil production to raise production when demand was strong and to lower production when demand was weak. So treating the barrel of oil like a financial instrument has been used in that sense by OPEC for years and to have the United States government do the same thing could have a positive impact and reduce the historical precedent of a huge price spike followed by a huge price cap crash by providing extra liquidity on the other side of the trade it could actually smooth out the market and it would have less of an impact and perhaps not do as much damage to the global economy.
Yet we might have to wait before that theory is tested. Today Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration is ruling out deploying the Treasury Department to trade oil futures for now, as officials believe the agency’s ability to affect the market is limited.
They also say that the administration is hesitant to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve because it is only about 60% full and has been heavily utilized, with damage caused by frequent withdrawals and the need for deferred maintenance. Remember the Biden administration tapped the reserve to try to win in the mid-terms as his energy polices were causing gas prices to soar, Before the war in Ukraine
The administration is considering a range of options to address the spike in oil and gasoline prices, including providing insurance guarantees and possible naval escorts, as well as waivers of fuel-blending requirements and tax holidays. I love holidays.
These alarming price predictions come amid mounting concerns over rising fuel costs in the United States, with AAA reporting that the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline has risen nearly 27 cents over the past week to $3.25. The current national average matches the price level seen in early April 2025. Seasonal factors are also at play, as spring typically brings increased gasoline demand and the transition to summer-blend fuel, both of which tend to drive prices higher. The last time the national average experienced a comparable weekly jump was in March 2022, at the onset of the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
They should also highlight diesel as the price of diesel as that is the global soft spot that roared to a national average hit $4.330 per gallon as of March 6, 2026. That’s a hefty jump from just yesterday’s $4.166, and a whopping increase from the $3.757 we saw a week ago. Back in June 2022, during the height of the Russia-Ukraine supply shock, diesel peaked at a record $5.816 per gallon – the all-time high. We’re not there yet, but $4.330 is no slouch; it’s the highest we’ve seen since early 2024, when post-pandemic demand and refinery issues pushed prices north of $4 for a spell.
Looking further back, on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis era saw diesel averaging around $4.70 at its peak, driven by booming global demand and tight supplies. A month ago, we were at a more palatable $3.643, and a year ago today. Just $3.650. So, this recent spike represents about a 19% jump year-over-year, outpacing inflation and reminding us how quickly geopolitics can turn the tables not to mention past green energy policies that reduced the worlds’ ability to refine the fuel as it shout refineries that focused on diesel production.
Yet the key for the market is can Iran who has been reduced to a terror group continued to disrupt the globes most important oil choke point with every missile that Iran fires they are gaining more enemies and there is more pressure from the world to reopen that all important Strait and today there are reports that at least one US ship was able to go through the Strait unharmed. It was reported that US-sanctioned gas tanker transits Strait of Hormuz early Friday.
In the early days of this murderous Iranian regime it used to be America held hostage day one now it’s the world held hostage or at least the Strait of Hormuz held hostage and the days will be counted I highly doubt that the world is going to stand by and allow this terror group to continue to disrupt and damage the global economy. Overnight they attacked another OPEC member as Iran targeted US bases in Kuwait with drones.
In the buildup to the war, I recommended using options as a hedge. Right now, buying options is extremely expensive, but sometimes when options are expensive, it’s because they are worth it. The possibility of huge moves higher and lower still exists, and the big question going into the weekend is whether Iran can continue its assault on the Strait of Hormuz or if they are in the last hours of their existence. Regardless, continue to pray for the safety of all our military members and allies, as they put it all on the line to try to remove this regime that has supported terror and has been an obstacle to peace in the world for many years.
Reuters is reporting China is in talks with Iran to allow crude oil and Qatari liquefied natural gas vessels safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S.-Israeli war on Tehran intensifies, three diplomatic sources told Reuters. The war, which entered its sixth day on Thursday, has left the critical shipping passageway all-but shut, with countries around the world cut off from a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
China, which has friendly relations with Iran and relies heavily on Middle Eastern supplies, is unhappy about the Islamic Republic’s move to paralyze shipping through the Strait and is pressing Tehran to allow safe passage for the vessels, according to the sources.
The world’s second-largest economy gets about 45% of its oil from the Strait. Ship tracking data showed a vessel called the Iron Maiden passed through the Strait overnight after changing its signaling to ‘China-owner,’ but far more sailings will be needed to calm global markets. Crude oil prices are up more than 15% since the conflict began amid production stoppages as Tehran attacks energy facilities in the Gulf as well as ships crossing the Strait.
Natural gas prices here in the US remain unmoved, due in part to the fact that the predicts there will be a surge in liquefied natural gas in the coming years and prices will be lower. Obviously, in Europe, that’s not going to be the case in the short term, but here in the United States, because of record production, we are producing more than we can use right now, and that is keeping our prices fairly stable.
Still, the impact of the market is going to depend on the weather.
Fox Weather reports that the weather might be warming up, but don’t put those umbrellas away just yet! As one system exits, another will bring more rain to the I-95 corridor, with a widespread 1 to 2 inches possible from Pennsylvania to Massachusetts Thursday through Friday morning. Some interior snow is also likely, with higher elevations in New England expected to see 3 to 5 inches.
The latest weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (), released yesterday on March 5, 2026, showed that the country pulled a lot of natural gas out of underground storage tanks during the week ending February 27.
These big underground “batteries” hold extra gas for when people need it for heating homes, running factories, or making electricity. At the end of that week, the total working gas left in storage was 1,886 billion cubic feet (Bcf). That was a drop of 132 Bcf from the week before, when the level was 2,018 Bcf. The withdrawal was bigger than most analysts expected (they had guessed around 122 Bcf) and much steeper than the previous week’s smaller draw of just 52 Bcf.
Compared with history, the picture is still fairly balanced. We have 115 Bcf more gas in storage than we did at the same time last year (that’s about 6.5 percent higher), but we’re 43 Bcf below the average level from the past five years (about 2.2 percent lower). The bigger pull happened because families and businesses were still burning gas for heat as winter winds down, even though the worst cold snaps earlier in the season have eased off.
The news was good for traders: because the draw was larger than expected, it helped push natural gas futures prices higher right after the report came out, keeping the market in positive territory and adding some bullish (upward) feeling.
Right now, in early March 2026, we are finishing the winter “withdrawal season” (roughly November through March), when we take more gas out of storage than we put back in. Soon we’ll switch to the spring and summer “injection season,” when we refill the tanks. U.S. production of natural gas stays strong at roughly 107–108 billion cubic feet per day, helped by extra gas that comes up along with oil drilling in areas like the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico. Demand is holding up well from several places: steady shipments of super-cooled LNG to other countries, sales to Mexico, and power plants that burn gas to make electricity (especially when the weather shifts).
Overall, our storage levels sit in a comfortable middle ground—slightly better than last year but a touch below the five-year norm—so prices could still bounce around depending on how cold or warm the next few weeks are and whether producers ramp up or slow down.
