In-brief analysis
October 15, 2025
We expect energy expenditures this winter will vary based on a home’s main space heating fuel: homes heating with natural gas will pay about the same amount for natural gas as they did last winter, but homes heating with electricity will pay more than they did last winter. Homes heating with propane or heating oil will pay less than they did last winter.
Trends in retail energy prices account for most of the changes in heating expenditures in our Winter Fuels Outlook, released today. We expect weather this winter will be similar to or milder than last winter.
The weather is a key source of uncertainty in these forecasts, so we provide two side cases that assume colder or warmer winter temperatures, as measured by heating degree days. In 9 of the past 10 winters, actual weather outcomes at the national level have fallen within the bounds of these weather cases.
In our colder weather case, expenditure forecasts shift higher, and we expect nearly all U.S. households would pay more than they did last winter, regardless of their heating fuel. In our warmer weather case, households heating with natural gas, propane, or heating oil would pay less than they did last winter, but households using electricity would pay about the same as they did last winter because of recent increases in retail electricity prices throughout the country.
A home’s sensitivity to weather depends on local weather conditions, the home’s insulation and air tightness, preferences for indoor air temperatures, and the energy efficiency of the equipment used to provide space heating. For example, homes primarily heating with electricity tend to be in the warmer parts of the country, and homes heating with propane or heating oil tend to be in the coldest parts of the country.
The four fuels included in our Winter Fuels Outlook—natural gas, electricity, propane, and heating oil—cover about 96% of the U.S. housing population. The energy consumption and expenditures in our outlook are meant to provide general expectations based on a household’s space heating fuel and region of the United States rather than a comparison across heating fuels.
Our forecasts combine detailed information about the U.S. residential sector from our Residential Energy Consumption Survey with energy price and weather forecasts from our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). As the winter progresses, we will update our Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts concurrently with each STEO release through April 2026.
Principal contributor: Owen Comstock
