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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September inflation data release was scheduled to occur on Wednesday, October 15th, 2025, but at this point it has been postponed until October 24th, due to the government shutdown. Despite the shutdown, the Labor Department is recalling some employees to finalize the inflation data. Much of the information was already collected before the government closed, meaning it can still be processed and published relatively quickly.
September Inflation Data Holds the Key to 2026 Social Security COLA
The Labor Department’s September inflation report is critical because it is used to calculate the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). So the September data affects payments to more than 70 million Americans.
The COLA is designed to ensure that Social Security benefits keep pace with rising prices and is determined using inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). A recent estimate from non-governmental analysts projected that the 2026 adjustment would come in around 2.7%, but that figure is subject to change depending on how September’s inflation numbers ultimately look. Even a small uptick in prices could raise the adjustment, while lower-than-expected inflation might bring it down.
Note: The new Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) takes effect in January of 2026. The COLA is actually based on inflation data from the entire third quarter (July–September), not just September.
The BLS’s numbers feed more than just Social Security COLA calculations, but also for policymakers, investors, and the Federal Reserve, all of whom rely on accurate inflation data to make key decisions.
The Government shutdown has already affected the September employment report, which was due October 3rd, but was not released due to the shutdown. That report was also largely complete and could be issued quickly once normal government operations resume. However, October’s economic data, including future inflation and employment numbers, may face longer delays since the data collection work can’t proceed until federal employees return.
Although modern technology has transformed data collection in many corporate fields, the Consumer Price Index still depends heavily on traditional, antiquated survey methods. About 60% of CPI data comes from government surveyors who physically visit or call stores, clinics, and service providers to record real-world prices on everything from groceries to medical visits. This manual process makes CPI compilation particularly vulnerable during shutdowns. It has also raised concerns of inefficiency, inaccuracy, and the opportunity for outright fudging due to lazy government employees.
Meanwhile, private-sector firms have stepped in to fill the information gap. Companies like PriceStats, which tracks millions of online prices from around 25 countries, produce near–real-time inflation indicators with just a three-day lag. Another firm, Truflation, aggregates data from more than 30 sources, covering millions of prices, to generate daily inflation estimates that it markets as an independent “real-time CPI.” These alternative data streams are increasingly watched by economists seeking early insights prior to the official government data release.
Interestingly, Truflation is saying that inflation is around 2.21% which is much lower than the BLS numbers, which were 2.92% in August. Most Americans believe that the BLS underestimates inflation in an effort to reduce COLA payments, so it is surprising that Truflation numbers are actually lower than the BLS numbers.
September Inflation Data Critical for More Than Just COLA
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged alternative data sources in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics, noting that the central bank is relying more heavily on private-sector data sources, such as payroll processor ADP, which provides its own monthly employment report.
If the government shutdown continues and official reports remain scarce, it could complicate the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions. Without timely inflation and employment data, policymakers may have to depend on less standardized private indicators—adding another layer of uncertainty to an already delicate economic balancing act.
For now, all eyes remain on October 24, when the September inflation report is expected to finally shed light on what retirees can expect from their 2026 Social Security COLA.
Summary:
The Labor Department’s September inflation report, delayed until October 24 by the government shutdown, will determine the 2026 Social Security COLA, currently estimated at 2.7%. Since much of the Consumer Price Index relies on manual data collection, the delay underscores the system’s vulnerability. With official data stalled, the Federal Reserve and others are turning to private sources like PriceStats and Truflation for real-time inflation insights. The final numbers will set the 2026 COLA, which takes effect in January 2026, impacting millions of Social Security recipients.
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