In-brief analysis
August 26, 2025
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), August 2025
Note: Growth rates are compound annual growth rates for 2010 to 2019, 2020 to 2024, and 2024 to 2026. We use product supplied to estimate consumption.
U.S. jet fuel consumption growth has slowed in 2025, following a period of rapid consumption growth after 2020, as U.S. air travel recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. We forecast the slowdown in jet fuel consumption growth will continue through 2026, falling below both the accelerated rate of the previous four years and the longer-term growth rate seen during the 2010s. Contributing factors include rising economic concerns weighing on flight demand and ongoing improvements in commercial aircraft fleet fuel economy.
In 2020, annual average U.S. jet fuel consumption fell nearly 40% when efforts to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic substantially reduced commercial air travel. As commercial air travel recovered over the next four years, jet fuel consumption grew at an annualized rate of 12%, more than five times faster than the growth rate from 2010 to 2019. U.S. commercial air travel fully recovered by 2024 when available seat miles, a measure of aircraft carrying capacity, surpassed 2019 levels for both domestic and international travel.
Passenger volumes, as measured by the U.S. Transportation Security Administration, declined in the second quarter of 2025 compared with the previous year for the first time since the pandemic amid economic uncertainty.
The University of Michigan’s April 2025 Surveys of Consumers found consumers perceived increasing risks to the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation. Major U.S. commercial airlines lowered their profit estimates for 2025 because of weakening air travel demand in their outlooks. Although consumer confidence started to recover in June, it remains lower than at the start of the year.
An increasingly fuel-efficient U.S. commercial aircraft fleet is also contributing to slowing growth in jet fuel consumption. The average fuel economy of U.S. carriers—in terms of available seat miles per gallon—increased from 56 available seat miles per gallon in 2010 to 67 available seat miles per gallon in 2024, up 19%.
This fuel-efficiency trend is expected to continue, contributing to our forecast deceleration in jet fuel consumption growth. After a slowdown in new aircraft deliveries in 2024, Cirium, an aviation analytics provider, expects aircraft deliveries to increase in 2025. This increase in deliveries should drive increased commercial fleet fuel economy as older models are switched out for more energy efficient newer ones.
Principal contributor: Alex de Keyserling
