In-brief analysis
July 22, 2025
The United States exported more crude oil to Nigeria than it received from Nigeria for the first time in February and March 2025. During this period, refinery maintenance on the U.S. East Coast drove down U.S. demand for crude oil imports, including imports from Nigeria, and the relatively new Dangote refinery in Nigeria drove up Nigeria’s demand for inputs, including crude oil it imported from the United States. This marks the first time that the United States was a net crude oil exporter to Nigeria, and structural changes to crude oil trade between the countries suggest this dynamic could occur more frequently.
In January 2024, the Dangote refinery in Nigeria began processing crude oil, and in the following month Nigeria imported crude oil from the United States. Nigeria is more commonly considered a source for U.S. crude oil imports. In nearly every year between 1973, when our country-level crude oil import data series began, and 2011, when an increase in domestic crude oil production reduced the need for light, sweet crude oil from Nigeria and other countries, Nigeria ranked among the top five sources of U.S. crude oil imports. More recently, Nigeria ranked ninth among U.S. crude oil import sources in 2024.
U.S. gross exports of crude oil to Nigeria reached 111,000 barrels per day (b/d) in February 2025 and 169,000 b/d in March. Over the same period, U.S. gross crude oil imports from Nigeria fell, from 133,000 b/d in January to 54,000 b/d in February and 72,000 b/d in March.
These declines primarily reflected maintenance at the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in New Jersey, reducing demand for crude oil imports. As the Bayway refinery returned to normal operations in April and the Dangote refinery experienced unplanned maintenance from early April through mid-May, U.S. crude oil imports from Nigeria increased and U.S. crude oil exports to Nigeria declined.
The Dangote refinery is scheduled to reach full crude oil distillation capacity of 650,000 b/d this year; trade press reports indicate it is currently running at about 550,000 b/d. Dangote will likely continue processing imports of crude oil if the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) does not increase crude oil deliveries beyond the 300,000 b/d it currently delivers.
Revenue generated from crude oil sales to the Dangote refinery are denominated in naira, Nigeria’s domestic currency. Because the naira has weakened relative to the U.S. dollar, the NNPC has an economic incentive to sell its crude oil on international markets. In addition, the NNPC’s ability to increase deliveries may be limited because crude oil production by the NNPC and its partners has generally declined, falling from a peak of 2.4 million b/d in 2005 to 1.3 million b/d in 2024.
Principal contributors: Erik Kreil, Eric Han, Jeff Barron
