Author: Money Mechanics

Hurricane Erin is now in the Atlantic, notably the first tropical storm to achieve hurricane status this season. Catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities fund manager Twelve Securis has highlighted that there is a strong consensus among the models that Erin will stay far enough away from the US coastline to avoid any significant impacts.The latest advisory from the US National Hurricane Center states that, “Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next two to three days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend.” The NHC’s forecast advisory shows hurricane Erin has the potential to…

Brightline, the private rail line linking Orlando to Miami, refinanced $985M of junior debt at a record-high 14.89% yield, reflecting deep investor concern after delaying a July interest payment on $1.2B in munis. The company, already downgraded deeper into junk by S&P and Fitch, faces falling ridership (53% below projections) and revenue (67% below estimates), plus a potential cash shortfall this quarter without an equity infusion. This is a reminder that non-traditional, revenue-dependent projects carry extreme credit and liquidity risks in the muni space, especially in the absence of essential-service backing or state/local guarantees. While double-digit yields may seem attractive,…

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its June 2025 Inflation report on July 15th, 2025. The report showed that Annual Inflation was up from 2.4% in May to 2.7% in June.Calculated to two digits, it was really 2.35% in May and 2.67% in June.Economists were predicting higher inflation, of 2.6% while our MIP was projecting an “Extreme High” of 2.63%. The NYSE responded by falling about 1% on the day, on fears that this might postpone the FED’s rate cuts even further.June’s Inflation Prediction:At 2.67%, June’s inflation numbers came in slightly above last month’s “extreme high” projection.Go here to…

Six Months of Earnings at Various APYs APY Earnings on $25K for 6 months Earnings on $50K for 6 months Earnings on $75K for 6 months 4.00% $495 $990 $1,485 4.25% $526 $1,051 $1,577 4.50% $556 $1,113 $1,669 4.75% $587 $1,174 $1,761 5.00% $617 $1,235 $1,852 These examples assume you can earn the stated annual percentage yield (APY) for the full six months, which may not be possible with variable-rate options. Important Don’t forget that the rate you earn from a savings account, money market account, cash account, or money market fund can fluctuate—and will almost certainly drop once the…

I was slow to the outrage about the floated idea of stopping the publication of the monthly Jobs report (in favour of just the quarterly numbers). It now appears that E.J. Antoni has walked away from that suggestion.Backing down is hardly unexpected. From the point of view of politics, economics data just seems to be a nuisance when it goes the wrong way, and shutting it off does not matter. But for people who are paid to discuss the economy, in the absence of data, there is nothing useful to do. As a result widespread push back from economists in…

The July 2025 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation increased by 0.2% for the month, slightly below the 0.3% rise in June. These data were released at 8:30 am EST on August 12, 2025, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 2.7%, matching the figure from June. The mixed results aligned near economists’ consensus estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents July’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. As you can see, core inflation outperformed,…

Key Takeaways The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) created new tax-advantaged savings accounts for minors, called Trump Accounts.Eligible babies born between 2025 and 2028 will get $1,000 in seed money, with parents able to contribute an additional $5,000 per year.One source projects these accounts could hit $1.9 million by age 28—our calculations tell a very different story.There’s no reason to pass up the free government seed money, but for parents of kids born outside the eligible years, these accounts appear to offer little upside. The full article continues below these offers from our partners. How Trump Accounts Work Trump…

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com The U.S. Treasury on Thursday will offer $8 billion in a reopening auction of CUSIP 912810UH9, a 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security. The auction, which will create a 29-year, 6-month TIPS, has the potential to set a multi-decade high for real yield. This TIPS originally auctioned February 20, generating a real yield to maturity of 2.403%, the highest in 23 years for this term. Its coupon rate was set at 2.375%, also the highest for this term in 23 years. CUSIP 912810UH9 trades on the secondary market. According to Bloomberg’s U.S. Yields, it closed Friday with a…

Key Takeaways Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver closely watched remarks on Friday, potentially signaling how the central bank could approach interest rates.Walmart, Home Depot, Target, and Lowe’s are scheduled to report earnings, giving insight into consumer spending patterns and tariff pressures.Housing market data, Fed meeting minutes, and weekly jobless claims also will attract attention this week. Get ready to hear a lot about Jerome Powell. Remarks from the Federal Reserve chair will likely demand market watchers’ attention this week as investors seek clarity over the central bank’s next interest-rate moves. Powell has been under pressure to…

Key Takeaways Home Depot and Lowe’s have said the homeowners who typically turn to them for remodeling jobs generally have been holding off on renovations due to high interest rates.The companies’ earnings, scheduled for this week, may provide fresh insight on whether homeowners’ mindsets have shifted.The customers Home Depot caters to are relatively affluent and likely can withstand higher inflation and prices, the company has said. Are affluent Americans still spending? Two big home improvement retailers could offer clues about that later this week. Homeowners renovating kitchens and retiling bathrooms have long been crucial parts of the business at Home…