The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.19% at a 1-week low. The shutdown of the US government today is weighing on the dollar. The dollar added to its losses today on weakness in the US labor market, following the unexpected contraction of the September ADP employment change for a second consecutive month. The weak labor market news also boosted the chances of a Fed rate cut at the October 28-29 FOMC meeting to 100% in the swaps market, a negative factor for the dollar. Losses in the dollar are limited after the Sep ISM manufacturing index rose more than expected to a 7-month high.
The US Sep ADP employment change unexpectedly fell -32,000, weaker than expectations of a +51,000 increase and the largest decline in 2.5 years. Also, Aug ADP employment was revised lower to -3,000 from the previously reported +54,000.
The US Sep ISM manufacturing index rose +0.4 to a 7-month high of 49.1, stronger than expectations of 49.0. The Sep ISM price paid sub-index fell -1.8 to an 8-month low of 61.9, weaker than expectations of 62.7.
The markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Oct 28-29.
EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is up by +0.09% at a 1-week high. Today’s dollar weakness is supportive for the euro. Also, an upward revision to the Eurozone Sep S&P manufacturing PMI is positive for the euro. In addition, an acceleration of Eurozone consumer prices in the Sep CPI report is hawkish for ECB policy and bullish for the euro.
The euro also has support from central bank divergence, as the markets view the ECB as largely finished with its rate-cut cycle, while the Fed is expected to cut rates by roughly two more times by the end of this year.
The Eurozone Sep S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.3 to 49.8 from the previously reported 49.5.
Eurozone Sep CPI rose +2.2% y/y from +2.0% y/y in Aug, right on expectations. Sep core CPI was unchanged from Aug at +2.3% y/y, right on expectations.
Swaps are pricing in a 1% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the October 30 policy meeting.
USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is down by -0.61%. The yen rallied to a 2-week high against the dollar today after the closure of the US government boosted safe-haven demand for the yen. Positive Japanese economic news was also bullish for the yen after the Japan Q3 Tankan large manufacturing sentiment index rose, and the Japan Sep S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward. The yen added to its gains after T-note yields declined on the weaker-than-expected US Sep ADP employment report.
