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Key Takeaways
- The 2026 COLA announcement is expected in October, but the inflation data used to calculate it could be delayed by the government shutdown.
- The agency responsible for the CPI inflation data had to cease operations due to the shutdown.
- Millions of Americans count on Social Security as their only source of income.
Retirees anxious to learn how much Social Security’s 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will be may have to wait due to the federal government shutdown.
The 2026 COLA announcement is expected in October. However, it’s calculated with inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the agency said it would “completely cease operations” in the event of a shutdown.
It’s estimated that nearly 22 million seniors rely solely on their Social Security benefits, according to a report by nonpartisan seniors group The Senior Citizens League.
How The COLA Is Calculated
The Social Security Administration adjusts benefits each year based on the cost of living.
It does so by using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August, and September of that year and comparing it to the same months the year prior. Economists expect that the 2026 COLA will be 2.7% or 2.8%, up from 2025’s 2.5% increase.
What This Means For Beneficiaries
Budgeting for the future will be difficult, particularly for those who are on a fixed income, without information on what the COLA adjustment will be.
How The COLA Could Be Affected By The Shutdown
Other key reports by the BLS are also in limbo due to the shutdown, including the Consumer Price Index inflation reading, which is scheduled for Oct. 15.
Social Security beneficiaries will still get a COLA, but the size of it can’t be calculated without September’s CPI inflation data.
“A delay of the CPI release during October of each year might have an impact on the cost-of-living adjustment announcement by the Social Security Administration,” according to the Department of Labor’s contingency plan.
