:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/GettyImages-22322696851-b22a5de35edd4a49853dc7f8fbd332d1.jpg "Carnival Says Cruise Bookings Are Strong. Its Stock Slides Anyway.")
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Carnival Corporation posted better-than-expected quarterly results, lifted its full-year outlook and said booking volumes were outpacing capacity growth by a wide margin.
- Despite that, Carnival shares fell on Monday, as the company’s forecast for net yields missed expectations.
Carnival Corporation (CCL) lifted its full-year outlook for the third time this year as the cruise operator posted better-than-expected third-quarter results and said booking volumes were outpacing capacity growth by a wide margin.
Nonetheless, Carnival shares were down nearly 4% in late trading Monday, while rival Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) also lost ground. Part of the decline could be due to profit-taking: Carnival shares came into the day up 23% so far in 2025.
Another possible drag: Carnival’s projection of passenger revenue lagged analysts’ estimates even as the cruise line posted strong bookings numbers. Carnival said it expects net yields to rise 5.3% in 2025, versus the 5.79% increase projected by analysts polled by Visible Alpha. Net yields measure revenue from passengers after commissions and other costs per cruise day.
Why This News is Significant
Cruise companies are a good indicator of discretionary spending because the industry relies on consumers having extra income. Growth in discretionary spending underscores the strength of the broader economy.
Still, the company has “nearly half of 2026 booked, which is in line with 2025 record levels (at the same time last year) but now at historical high prices (in constant currency) for both our North America and Europe segments,” Carnival CEO Josh Weinstein said.
“Since May, booking trends have continued to strengthen with higher booking volumes than last year and far outpacing capacity growth,” he said, noting that the third quarter was marked by record net income and revenues. Net yields rose 4.6% in the third quarter year-over-year.
Quarterly Results Beat Estimates
Carnival posted third-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.43 on revenue of $8.15 billion. Analysts polled by Visible Alpha projected $1.32 and $8.11 billion, respectively. Citi analysts said the “EBITDA outperformance” during the quarter was “a function of significantly better pricing power and better cost performance.”
Carnival raised its full-year outlook, citing “improved net yields and effective cost & balance sheet management.” It now sees adjusted net income nearly 55% higher than in 2024, $235 million more than its guidance in June. It anticipates adjusted EBITDA of around $7.05 billion, up 15% compared to 2024 and better than June guidance of $6.9 billion.
