Florida Rolls Back Vaccine Mandates. The Economic Fallout Could Be Severe

Recent news that Florida will remove key school vaccine mandates has sparked significant discussion about the ramifications for the state’s health care and economy, with possible effects on other states. In making the announcement, Joseph A. Ladapo, Florida’s surgeon general, said the mandates violate “bodily autonomy” and parental rights. 

The decision eliminates mandates for diseases such as chickenpox, hepatitis B, and meningitis. Ladapo said he wants all mandates removed, but those for measles, polio, diphtheria, pertussis (whooping cough), mumps, and tetanus, among others, are written into state law, so the state legislature would have to vote to ban those.

Outbreaks Risk Straining Florida’s Economy

Overturning vaccine mandates could trigger increased cases of preventable diseases, which can spread more easily if immunization isn’t widespread. “If there’s a big outbreak … you’ll see [Florida hospital] beds filled up quickly and hospitals have to figure out how to manage quarantine units with not having enough beds for both kinds of patients, infectious and non-infectious,” said Lynn Hall, a health systems consultant in Florida and Alabama.

Detrimental economic impacts on health care could include worker retention issues, disruptions to supply chain operations, increased pharmaceutical shortages as outbreaks occur, and the need to use limited hospital beds for patients who must be quarantined to prevent the further spread of infectious conditions.

As the risk of health care professionals being exposed to infectious diseases rises, providers may choose to leave the state. “Policy changes directly impact health care staffing and patient flow patterns,” said Ana Vinikov, practice manager at Global Pain and Spine Clinic, near Chicago. “When Florida dropped vaccine mandates, we immediately saw a 15% uptick in inquiries from Florida-licensed medical professionals looking to relocate north.”

Also, outbreaks of infectious diseases may deter tourists from visiting Florida, hurting its vital tourism industry. “We’re already dying,” said Carmen Lee, general manager at Ramada Sarasota Waterfront by Wyndham, in Sarasota. “People get scared, they don’t want to get sick, so they don’t come.”

“Tourism is Florida’s bread and butter,” said Jeffrey Swederski, a pharmacy operations manager for Walgreens in Tampa, Florida. “Any hit to that would wreck the Florida economy, considering we’re a no-income tax state. Sales tax and property taxes are what fund everything here, so we can’t afford to have a tourism drought.”

The Economic Stakes Are Backed By Research

Research shows that vaccinations can lead to a better quality of life, from reduced stress to improved health and the avoidance of life-altering health conditions. Vaccinations protect against health impacts such as loss of hearing and damage to the brain from infectious diseases like measles.

Data also backs the economic benefits of vaccinations on both an individual level and societally. A study conducted by the CDC looked at a pool of children born between 1994 and 2023, and found that the benefits of routine immunizations (such as measles, mumps, rubella, and hepatitis A and B) yielded a net $540 billion in direct cost savings, such as the cost of treating infectious diseases, and $2.7 trillion in savings on broader costs, such as lost productivity. 

The vaccinations avoided a potential 508 million cases of infectious conditions, 32 million lifetime hospitalizations, and 1.1 million deaths. 

There Could Be Ripple Effects in Other States 

As Florida faces future disease outbreaks, the need for increased medical supplies will burden supply chain networks and drive further health care operational costs. “The real economic disruption hits medical equipment and supply chains hard,” said Vinikov. To secure the needed medical equipment for treating infectious conditions and increased hospitalizations, supply chains that rely on imports from other states will further strain the health care system in Florida and beyond.

Companies that operate in Florida and other states could see changes in workers’ compensation insurance rates. “Dropping vaccine mandates triggers massive workers’ compensation claim redistributions,” said Geoff Stanton, president at Stanton Insurance in Waltham, Massachusetts. “Florida businesses will see their comp rates adjust as risk pools shift, while states maintaining mandates face premium spikes as their risk profiles become concentrated with higher-liability operations. I’ve seen this pattern with our commercial clients who operate across multiple states.” 

Ten other states have so far changed their laws in ways that could reduce children’s routine immunization rates, such as by allowing exemptions for religious beliefs. The 10 are Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, New Hampshire, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia. 

Colorado has passed a law that could increase vaccination rates, and Illinois and New Mexico are instituting plans to allow providers to take guidance from their state health departments’ recommendations. Massachusetts has mandated that insurance carriers cover vaccines recommended by the state. And three West Coast states, California, Oregon, and Washington, have formed a pact called the West Coast Health Alliance to make science-based recommendations on health policy.