- As mentioned in a previous note, we have several economic data points being released BEFORE the FED meeting this month. One of which is the Non-Farm Payrolls, Bloomberg is expecting a larger gain in August’s numbers than in July. This gain is attributed to local government hiring after a temporary freeze in hiring patterns. I would suspect this will be true; however, I do not think this will be significant – we are still betting on one cut this month.
- Regarding hiring, there is a phenomenon known as the “August Anomaly,” which has been observed over the past 30 years. The monthly payroll numbers have consistently undershot consensus, suggesting a “downside” surprise in the numbers. However, should we have higher government spending, we could see this “anomaly” reverse. We have seen President Trump put the brakes on a lot of items within our federal government, but hiring did pick up in July in that sector. 9/5 Change in NON Farm Payrolls are expected to be 75K. This will be an important number which will drive the markets.
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