What To Expect From Friday’s Jobs Report

The job market continued to sputter along in its recent low-hiring, low-firing limbo, if forecasts are on target.

Economists predict that a report on Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will show the economy continuing its recent trend of relatively low job growth. Employers likely added 75,000 jobs in August, a slight uptick from the anemic 73,000 added in July, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

They also expect the unemployment rate to tick to 4.3%, slightly higher than the prior month’s 4.2% level.

Friday’s jobs report comes at a crucial time for the economy and the outlook for interest rates. The July edition caused economic and political shockwaves by showing a sharp slowdown in job growth and steep downward revisions to job growth estimates for May and June. The August report could shed fresh light on how much President Donald Trump’s tariffs are dragging down the hiring market and the overall economy.

The report could also be pivotal for the Federal Reserve, which will use the data to decide whether to cut interest rates at the central bank’s next policy committee meeting in September. Fed officials have said they’re considering lowering interest rates out of concern that tariffs are slowing hiring and could cause a severe increase in unemployment. A lower federal funds rate could lower borrowing costs and boost the job market.

Although job growth has been relatively slow compared to previous years, the unemployment rate has stayed low, with some economists saying the workforce is growing more slowly because of Trump’s crackdown on immigration.

Slow Growth Could Cement Fed Rate Cut

Financial markets currently widely expect the Fed to cut the Fed funds rate from its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. But that expectation could change if the job market rebounds and inflation worsens.

However, that may be a high bar to clear. An addition of 225,000 jobs in August would likely be enough job growth to ease the Fed’s concerns about the labor market and push policymakers to keep interest rates high, Michael T. Gapen, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a commentary. That would be the fastest job growth since December 2024.

Fed officials have been caught between their two-sided objective, given to them by Congress, of keeping inflation low and employment high. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested in a major policy speech this month that the job market was becoming more of a concern than it had been earlier this year.

How Much Can We Trust The Data?

Economists analyzing the August data may scrutinize it more than usual in the wake of last month’s report.

Trump fired the BLS director after the organization released an unexpectedly bad July jobs report. The president said the data was “rigged” to make him look bad, but experts have said that is highly unlikely. However, economists have voiced concerns about the quality and reliability of government data going forward.

Given the fresh concerns about BLS data, there may be more eyeballs on private reports on the job market due out on Thursday, a day ahead of the official one. A long-running monthly report on private hiring by payroll provider ADP, as well as the monthly layoff report by consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas could get extra attention.

Analytics firm Revelio Labs said it was launching its own measure of payroll growth called Revelio Public Labor Statistics, which is also due out on Thursday.

“These statistics aim to close the growing information gap and contribute to a fuller, more accurate view of the U.S. workforce,” the company said in a press release.