In-brief analysis
August 28, 2025
On August 25, 2025, the Monday before Labor Day weekend, the retail price of regular gasoline averaged $3.15 per gallon (gal) across the United States, 5% (or 17 cents/gal) lower than at the same time last year.
The cost of crude oil typically accounts for a little more than half of the retail gasoline price. Falling crude oil prices, driven by increasing global crude oil supply, have contributed to lower retail gasoline prices heading into this Labor Day. From August 1 to August 25, Brent crude oil prices averaged $67 per barrel, about 15% less than in August 2024.
We forecast gasoline prices will decline 11%, or about 35 cents/gal, from August to December. The forecast decline is driven by our expectation that crude oil prices will fall, caused by continued oil supply growth. In addition, the annual transition to winter-grade gasoline allows refiners to use less expensive components to produce gasoline, further contributing to lower gasoline prices.
U.S. gasoline prices vary regionally, reflecting local supply and demand conditions, state fuel specifications, and state taxes. The West Coast is the only U.S. region where gasoline prices are higher headed into Labor Day this year than last. Retail gasoline prices are usually the highest on the West Coast because of:
- The region’s limited connections with other major refining centers
- Tight local supply and demand conditions
- Higher-than-average state taxes in several West Coast states
- Gasoline specifications for California that make gasoline more costly to produce
By comparison, gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast are usually the lowest of any U.S. region. Gulf Coast states are home to more than half of U.S. refining capacity, and more gasoline is produced than is consumed in the region. Gulf Coast states also have lower gasoline taxes than the national average.
Principal contributor: Alex de Keyserling
