Almost two years have passed since OpenAI released GPT-3.5 to great fanfare. Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft, compared the technology’s arrival to his first encounter with the graphical user interface—a breakthrough that reshaped personal computing—in the 1980s. Others predicted that generative artificial intelligence (ai) would rapidly transform economies around the world, leaving many millions unemployed. Yet despite the hype and the worries, ai’s impact has been muted thus far. According to America’s Census Bureau, only 6% of businesses use AI to produce goods and services. Output and labour-productivity growth, meanwhile, remain far below the soaring heights of the computer age in the 1990s.
