In-brief analysis
July 11, 2025
In our Annual Energy Outlook 2025 (AEO2025), we project U.S. production growth of crude oil and natural gas remains relatively high through 2030 due to increasing U.S. exports of petroleum products and liquefied natural gas (LNG), as U.S. energy exports continue to be economical for international consumers.
AEO2025, which we released in April, only considers market and policy inputs as of December 2024 in most cases. Legislation, regulations, executive actions, and court rulings after that date are not considered in this analysis.
Crude oil
Crude oil production increases to about 14.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2027 or 2028 in most of our cases, compared with 13.2 million b/d in 2024. Near-term growth in our projections is largely due to increased production in the Permian Basin. The long-term projections differ somewhat from our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 13.4 million b/d in 2025 and a bit less in 2026, based on more recent market conditions. We only make forecasts through 2026 in our STEO.
Production rises to almost 18.0 million b/d in the early 2030s in our two cases that are most supportive of growth: the High Oil Price case, which assumes a higher Brent crude oil price, and the High Oil and Gas Supply case, which assumes higher ultimate recovery per well and lower drilling costs. Production decreases throughout the projection period in our Low Oil Price case and our Low Oil and Gas Supply case.
After 2030, crude oil production begins to decline in most of our cases as domestic petroleum demand decreases. Declining well productivity—brought about in part because production per well decreases as wells are drilled closer together—makes drilling less profitable in some regions.
Natural gas
Dry natural gas production increases to between 42.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) and 44.3 Tcf in the early 2030s in most of our cases, compared with 38.4 Tcf in 2024. In most cases, production remains relatively flat through 2050.
In the High Oil and Gas Supply case, crude oil production contributes to more natural gas production from the associated dissolved natural gas in shale resources; the assumptions also result in higher natural gas production per well. Conversely, in the Low Oil and Gas Supply case, low crude oil production contributes to less natural gas production as associated gas production declines.
Exports
Oil and natural gas production volumes support increasing exports of both petroleum products and natural gas in our projections. Much of the crude oil produced in the United States is refined into petroleum products domestically and then exported.
We project the United States will remain a net exporter of petroleum products through 2050 in all cases as expected capacity expansions at export terminals allow refineries and natural gas processors to increase exports.
U.S. natural gas prices tend to be lower than global prices, making U.S. LNG attractive on the international market. Favorable economics for U.S.-supplied natural gas leads to LNG exports growing through 2040 in most of our cases. In the AEO2025 Reference case, LNG exports peak at 9.8 Tcf in 2040, more than double the amount exported in 2024. We made several key assumptions underpinning these projections:
- Through 2028, all U.S. LNG export growth results from existing and under construction facilities announced as of June 2024.
- The LNG export permitting pause issued in February 2024 is not included in the model. The pause was rescinded as of January 2025.
- An annual maximum of 0.8 Tcf of new U.S. LNG export capacity can be built between 2030 and 2050 if it is economical to do so.
Although the Henry Hub natural gas spot price increases after the mid-2030s, domestic LNG capacity growth is economical until around 2040, when the Henry Hub price becomes too high to support new export project builds. International demand for LNG supports U.S. natural gas production through 2050 across all cases. To continue meeting international demand, producers access less economical resources over time. As a result, the Henry Hub price rises steadily, increasing from $2.88 real 2024 dollars per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025 to $4.80/MMBtu in 2050 in the Reference case. The rising production costs temper the growth in LNG exports over time.
Principal contributors: Kathryn Dyl, Stephen York, Brittany Phalon
