are quoted at $3,386.7, stabilizing after a sharp decline from the mid-August high of $3,423.8. The market has rebounded from the weekly Buy 1 level ($3,350) and is attempting to consolidate above the daily VC PMI mean ($3,379).
This price action is unfolding within the larger 360-day Gann cycle, which began on September 28, 2024 and is projected to bottom again on September 28, 2025.
Gann Time Cycles – The Final Decline
- The current 360-day cycle projects a major low in late September 2025.
- The August 14–21 window aligned with the 330°–345° harmonic of the cycle, a classic reversal zone where short-term peaks form before the final descent.
- Looking ahead, the 180° counterpart to the March 2025 swing aligns with Sep 28, 2025, reinforcing this date as the terminal cycle low window.
Thus, gold is now in the final declining phase of its yearly cycle, where volatility accelerates and downside washouts become increasingly probable.
Square of 9 Price Geometry – Resonance Levels
Overlaying price onto W.D. Gann’s Square of 9 spiral provides geometric resonance points:
- $3,350 (weekly Buy 1) sits on the Cardinal cross (0°), a powerful support axis.
- $3,408 (weekly equilibrium / Fibonacci 61.8%) aligns with the Square of 9 90° rotation, a resistance node.
- $3,441 (weekly Sell 1) resonates at the 180° opposition, marking a high-probability reversal level if tested.
- $3,317 (weekly Buy 2) corresponds to the 270° angle, a cycle support line and potential magnet into September.
The Square of 9 confirms that $3,404–$3,441 is an exhaustion zone, while $3,317–$3,350 is a geometric support band into the cycle low.
VC PMI Mean Reversion
The VC PMI framework dovetails with this geometry:
- Daily Mean: $3,379 – market above = bullish short-term bias.
- Daily Targets: $3,404 → $3,420.
- Weekly Targets: $3,441 → $3,480.
However, when placed in the context of the cycle, these upside levels are more likely to be mean reversion pivots — places to sell into strength rather than chase a breakout.
Momentum – Counter-Trend Rally
The MACD remains negative at -1.29, but is curling upward, reflecting a short-term counter-trend rally. Momentum divergences within the final cycle phase often precede exhaustion highs, not new sustainable uptrends.
Strategic Outlook
- Short-Term Bullish Bias: Probabilities favor a continuation toward $3,404–$3,420, with a possible extension to $3,441.
- Medium-Term Bearish Bias: These rallies should be viewed as distribution opportunities, with the market ultimately resuming its decline into $3,350 → $3,317 ahead of the September 28, 2025 cycle low.
- Time–Price Confluence: Gann cycles, Square of 9 price harmonics, and VC PMI levels all converge on the view that the current rally is counter-trend. The real buying opportunity lies at the cycle low in late September.
Conclusion
Gold is trading in a classic Gann cycle exhaustion phase: rallying to resistance in August before descending into a September washout.
- The Square of 9 identifies $3,408–$3,441 as the geometric resistance zone.
- The 360-day cycle points to September 28, 2025 as the terminal low window.
- The VC PMI framework confirms short-term mean reversion higher, but within the context of a larger bearish cycle phase.
Until September, gold remains a sell-the-rally market. The true opportunity will come when price and time align at the cycle low, opening the door for a new uptrend into 2026.
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TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
