While cautious optimism is growing over a potential deal to end the US war on Iran, I feel it’s too early to tell if an agreement can be reached.
US President Donald Trump says he called off air strikes on Iran. He claims a peace deal is close, and details of its signing will be announced shortly.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry says the main part of the text is almost finalized. However, they claim Americans are adding new requests and being greedy.
On the other hand, the US president has taken to social media to condemn Iran after Iranian media reported extensively on terms of a peace deal being hammered out.
“The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing,” Trump said on Truth Social.
“What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonourable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith.”
He added: “They better get their act together, and FAST!”
Tehran hasn’t given any definitive timeline regarding signing the agreement with the Americans. The Foreign Ministry spokesman yesterday said – for the first time actually – that the main body of the text has been largely finalised.
It’s the first time that Iranians and Americans have described there being real movement, while all of that military action has been filling the atmosphere over the past 72 hours.
At the same time, the spokesman rejected the idea about the time and place for signing a deal, describing that as media speculation. He said the main focus right now is to reach a comprehensive deal, but that the final agreement needs some time to be worked through with politicians and authorities here in Iran.
On the other hand, Israelis have made it clear they don’t consider themselves to be part of this deal, let alone Lebanon, and it’s dangerous to assume Lebanon would be a part of any US-Iran agreement.
In fact, it cannot be assumed Lebanon was a part of the previous “ceasefire” deal on April 8 when we had the Pakistani prime minister, who was key to facilitating that negotiation, announcing Lebanon was part of it.
Instead, what followed were 100 Israeli strikes within the span of 10 minutes and the deadliest day of the war so far here in Lebanon.
So, it’s an extraordinarily dangerous assumption for the Lebanese to even think they might be included when there has been no announcement yet – nothing on paper, no media leaks – and the Israelis making it pretty clear they don’t consider themselves part of whatever is going on between the US and Iran.
I doubt that we will see a lasting stabilisation of the situation right now. But if both sides accept the opening of the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally, this would certainly be a major step forward, and then thereafter they need to deal with the nuclear question.
Iran has demanded that the US ensures Israel halts its bombing, invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon as part of an agreement, but it remains far from clear if Hezbollah and Israel will stop fighting each other.
Undoubtedly, if this agreement works, this is certainly a great achievement for the whole region. If it does not work, I expect some more limited American strikes will likely continue, as the reasons would remain intact due to adamant Netanyahu, who wouldn’t stop attacks on Lebanon, and keep the Iran to retaliate repeatedly.
Though weekend developments matter a lot, as the recent media reports, a signing ceremony for a memorandum of understanding with Iran would most likely be held in Geneva, Switzerland, three sources told CNN on Friday.
That signing could take place as early as Sunday, according to a person familiar with plans.
That comes after US President Donald Trump on Thursday touted a “great settlement” that could resolve the war with Iran, suggesting it would be finalized in the coming days.
Trump said he anticipated a signing ceremony for the document soon, potentially in Europe, to be attended by Vice President JD Vance. However, Iranian officials have yet to confirm an agreement has been reached.
Two sources with knowledge of the diplomatic talks said the signing ceremony would be held in Geneva – not far from where Trump and a US delegation will attend a G7 summit next week in France. One of those sources said a signing ceremony would mark the start of “phase two” of diplomatic talks, as officials work through the implementation of the memorandum of understanding.
On evaluating the movements of are lurking before a decisive move as the formation of a “Bearish Dozi” on daily chart, while the gold futures are still much below the 200 EMA ($4,300), signalling a breakout or breakdown move awaits here before closing amid surging scepticism over the peace deal that could generate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz soon the U.S. stop firing over Iran.
Though gold futures are maintaining strength near 3.42%, are down 3.77%, while have also shed nearby 3.77 at 11:30; a little change in Trump’s stance this weekend could reverse this scenario completely.
I find that the short-term technical formations must be considered at this time.
On the 1-Hr. chart, though, gold futures are on a bullish engulfing, after testing a low at $4,045 on June 10, but facing significant resistance at the 100 EMA ($4,235.34), and trying to hold the immediate support at the 50 EMA ($4,199).
Undoubtedly, a breakdown below this could push the gold futures to retest the significant support at $4,124 tonight, as all the Exponential Moving Averages are below the 200 EMA, signalling weakness yet to take its toll before today’s closing.
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Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and oil at their own risk, as this analysis is solely based on observations.
