Super El Niño is well on its way, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicting it will emerge soon, likely between May and July 2026, and continue throughout the winter.
It gives homeowners a chance to prepare, but there are certain states that should brace for far more than just the weather. Meteorologists agree that Super El Niño is expected to hit these five states the hardest: California, Florida, Texas, New York, and Washington.
Unfortunately, homeowners in these areas may see their home insurance premiums skyrocket in response.
“In these ‘hot zone’ states, El Niño–related weather means more frequent and more severe claims and increasing rates,” explains Brad Sawyer, senior vice president and risk advisory leader at Marsh McLennan Agency in Dallas.
If you live in one of these hot zones, now is the time to shop for supplemental coverage and mitigate risk to protect your home and finances.
How Super El Niño is driving up insurance premiums
Across these five states, shifting El Niño–driven weather patterns are already causing higher claims activity, which is translating to higher home insurance costs.
California
According to Cheryl Nelson, meteorologist and disaster preparedness expert at Prepare with Cher in Norfolk, VA, El Niño patterns may increase the likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions in California.
This raises concerns for flooding, mudslides, coastal erosion, high surf, and most notably, debris flows in wildfire burn scar areas.
“Due to the increased wildfire risk in California, more frequent and severe claims as well as higher home insurance rates are a given,” says Sawyer.
This is particularly concerning as the state has already been struggling with limited insurance availability in high-risk wildfire zones. Some companies have placed caps on new business or even stopped coverage in California altogether.
Florida
Florida will be at a higher risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes during the late winter and early spring due to the storm track focusing along the Gulf Coast.
“In fact, the National Weather Service predicts Florida’s tornado threat will more than double during El Niño, contributing to higher claim activity and more expensive premiums,” Sawyer explains.
Unfortunately, Florida homeowners have dealt with insurance disruption for a while now, with several insurers exiting the state entirely. Locking in standard coverage, let alone supplemental policies, has been a serious challenge.
Texas
“El Niño may cause wetter-than-average conditions across Texas. And this state already faces significant exposure to flooding rainfall, coastal flooding, severe weather, and hurricane-related impacts,” says Nelson.
Sawyer adds that since 2015, we’ve seen every catastrophic peril in Texas: Hurricane Harvey, tornadoes in concentrated areas, including an EF-3 in Dallas, and severe convective storms every year.
As a result, insurance companies have increased premiums and imposed stricter underwriting requirements across most of the Lone Star State.
“Not only are rates going up in Texas, but coverages are being scaled back with higher wind/hail deductibles and roofing depreciation schedules,” Sawyer explains.
New York
El Niño patterns could shift the jet stream and sometimes favor more coastal storm systems along the East Coast, in states such as New York.
“When this happens, the primary concern is flooding,” explains Nelson.
Hurricanes can also be an issue.
“When major hurricanes make landfall and move along the East Coast, they inevitably make their way to New York. We saw more damage and flooding from remnants of hurricanes in New York than the storms often cause along the coast where they make landfall,” says Sawyer.
Every insurance company is just waiting for the next Sandy or larger hurricane-type event to hit Long Island, he explains. Insurers are starting to add wind and hail deductibles and preparing for coverage changes.
Homeowners in New York, especially those in coastal areas, have already faced higher premiums and difficulty securing wind and flood coverage.
Washington
El Niño may lead to drier-than-average conditions in Washington and other parts of the Pacific Northwest.
Nelson points out that this can worsen drought concerns and influence wildfire risk, depending on seasonal conditions.
“The fear here is wildfires, and it’s becoming more widespread. On a red-flag day, when wildfires do the most damage to the community, the fear is fire starting and entering an unprepared community and causing mass structure loss,” explains Sawyer.
Plus, there is the threat of earthquakes and tsunamis in Washington that are ever-present and come without warning. Together, these hazards contribute to higher home insurance costs.
Insurance challenges in Washington are nothing new, as homeowners have seen rising premiums in recent years, particularly in areas prone to wildfires and coastal areas where insurers are trying to limit exposure.
What to do about your home insurance coverage
If you’re a homeowner in a state that can expect the brunt of Super El Niño, be proactive and follow these steps.
Review your policy before renewal time
Start a few months before renewal in case options narrow.
“Ask your agent or broker what risks are not fully covered by a standard homeowners policy, especially flood (which is typically separate), and whether you need supplemental limits for valuables or extra living expenses,” says Jason Brewer, chief meteorologist at Marsh McLennan Agency based in Boston.
Flood insurance is a common gap. Even if your mortgage lender doesn’t require it, it’s likely worthwhile.
Focus on smart upgrades
Next, consider home upgrades that can mitigate risk.
In flood-prone areas, think drainage, sump pumps where appropriate, water sensors, and automatic shut-off valves. In wildfire areas, defensible space and home hardening are key, as is reducing ember entry points.
In wind and hail regions, roof condition and documented upgrades are crucial.
“Document your mitigation updates with photos and receipts. These documents may be helpful to you in a tight market and could help keep your insurability in place,” Brewer explains.
Give your basement the TLC it deserves
One of the most vulnerable areas in your home during a flood is your basement. Get ahead of the storm, and make sure your basement is watertight.
Courtney Klosterman, home insights expert at Hippo Insurance in San Jose, CA, recommends you seal your basement walls with a high-performance waterproofing compound and add weatherstripping around your doors.
It’s also a good idea to invest in flood-resistant insulation and drywall, install a sump pump with a battery backup, and set up a smart backwater valve.
“Taking these proactive measures can help keep trouble at bay and your basement dry and safe,” Klosterman explains.
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