Analysis of across multiple timeframes, amid heightened concerns regarding the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, indicates a potential retest of the May 4 low in the near term.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is “on life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal to end the conflict, calling it “totally unacceptable”.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esteqamali Baghaei, said the US has made “Unreasonable demands” to end the war, while the country’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Tehran is ready to respond to “any aggression” that will leave the US “surprised”.
On the other hand, the European Union has agreed to impose new sanctions on Israeli settlers for violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying the move “will not succeed”.
Gold futures remain steady in Asian trading on Tuesday as investors are more concerned about a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran and waiting for the outcome of the meeting between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.
Iranian officials insisted that Tehran’s demands — including sanctions relief, restoration of oil exports, and recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — were legitimate.
Moreover, remained elevated on Tuesday, raising concerns about possible supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global crude shipments.
Higher oil prices have capped gains in bullion, as investors worry that a sustained rise in energy costs could fuel inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. Higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.
I find that the investors are more focused on Trump’s expected meeting with Xi in Beijing later this week, where discussions are expected to include Iran, Taiwan, trade tension, artificial intelligence, and energy security.
Now, the attention is also turning to upcoming U.S. inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index report due later on Tuesday, for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path this year.
Technical Levels to Watch
In 1-Hr. chart, gold futures are maintaining a steep slide at a 70-degree angle, signaling a breakdown below the immediate support at the 100 EMA ($4,703.82) could push the gold futures to test the next significant support at the 200 EMA ($4,688) where a sustainable move below this could accelerate this slide to test the tested-lows of May 5, 2026 at $4,510.27 before today’s closing.
In a daily chart, gold futures, after opening the day at $4,776.94, tested the day’s high at $4,783.25 and day’s low at $4,93.62, are trading at $4,698, trying to hold the immediate support at the 20 EMA ($4,6940 while facing significant resistance at the 50 EMA ($4,368) due to the formation of a “bearish crossover”. If the futures find the next support at the 9 EMA ($4,684), could test the next support at the 100 EMA ($4,654) in today’s session.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and oil at their own risk, as this analysis is solely based on observations
