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    Home»Markets»Commodities»Oil Market Will Lose 100 Million Barrels a Week if Hormuz Remains Closed
    Commodities

    Oil Market Will Lose 100 Million Barrels a Week if Hormuz Remains Closed

    Money MechanicsBy Money MechanicsMay 12, 2026No Comments5 Mins Read
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    Oil Market Will Lose 100 Million Barrels a Week if Hormuz Remains Closed
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    Trump says the cease-fire is on life support. So what?

    Aramco

    On Life Support

    President Trump told reporters today the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is “on massive life support,” directly criticizing Iran’s latest peace proposal as a “piece of garbage” and “stupid.”

    “After reading that piece of garbage they sent us, I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support” 

    He also said he didn’t read it.

    Iran’s Response

    Here’s Iran’s response.

    “Our armed forces are ready to deliver a well-deserved response to any aggression; mistaken strategy and mistaken decisions will always lead to mistaken results— the whole world has already figured this out. We are prepared for all options; they will be surprised.”

    Staggeringly Expensive

    In an exaggerated headline (but the right direction), The Hill reports Trump’s chaotic war is bankrupting America

    Does anyone in America know what President Trump is doing in the Strait of Hormuz? Does Trump himself know?

    On Sunday, he boldly announced “Project Freedom,” his scheme to escort commercial ships through the shuttered strait. He then swiftly reversed course just two days later, declaring that the strait would remain closed, even as Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth was selling Project Freedom to the press. As Hegseth touted a plan that no longer existed, Trump again changed his timeline for ending his increasingly unpopular war in Iran.

    Trump’s impulsive and contradictory actions in Iran have confounded his generals, his Cabinet and the public since the war began 10 weeks ago. Trump is now so bogged down that he is confounding himself, too. It is time for Congress to exert some constitutional authority and wrap this debacle up before regular Americans endure even more financial suffering.

    Trump has clearly lost the plot of what has become a staggeringly expensive conflict without any clear strategic goal. In fact, the only measurable result of Trump’s Iran strikes has been a spike in the cost of by more than 50 percent since March. The cost of jet fuel rose so much so quickly that Spirit Airlines had no choice but to declare bankruptcy and liquidate 17,000 previously well-paying American jobs.

    Indeed, the Iran War may well be remembered for little else besides the rolling job losses and financial hardship it inflicted on working-class Americans who were already grappling with rising consumer prices.

    Then there’s the day-to-day expense of running a war without end. The conflict has drained more than $72 billion in taxpayer funds at a time when Republican leaders say there simply isn’t any cash available to extend healthcare subsidies for the 22 million Americans facing skyrocketing premiums. And that’s before Trump heads to Capitol Hill with hat in hand to ask for $80 billion to $100 billion more in war funding.

    Tens of thousands of people have lost their jobs because of Trump’s calamitous war. Millions more are facing financial hardship and rising debt as they struggle to survive in an economy turned upside-down by Trump’s endless game of chicken in the Strait of Hormuz. If Congress has a scrap of decency left, it will use its constitutional authority to end this nightmare before even more Americans sink beneath the economic waves. 

    Sleeping at the Helm

    Gaslighting of the Day

    The president is not in a rush to bring down gas prices. He has all the cards.

    Noted.

    With that note out of the way, let’s get to the real news of the day.

    Aramco Sees Losing 100 Million Barrels a Week if Hormuz Remains Closed

    The Wall Street Journal reports Aramco Sees Oil Market Losing 100 Million Barrels a Week if Hormuz Remains Closed

    The global oil market could lose around 100 million barrels of supply for every week the Strait of Hormuz remains closed if disruptions continue at the current rate, Chief Executive Amin Nasser said.

    Speaking on an earnings call on Monday, Nasser said the market has already lost about 1 billion barrels of oil supply during the crisis, though some losses have been offset by alternative export routes bypassing Hormuz and releases from strategic petroleum reserves.

    “The energy supply shock that began in the first quarter is the largest the world has ever experienced,” he said after Aramco reported a 25% rise in quarterly net profit. The comments came as the Iran conflict continues to severely disrupt flows through the strait, where around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas used to pass before the war.

    If the reopening of the key shipping route is delayed by several more weeks, oil markets might not fully normalize until 2027, according to Saudi Arabia’s national oil company.

    Strategic Drain

    But hey, exports are up. We call this winning.

    Trump Says Iran’s Response Is “Totally Unacceptable” OK, So What?

    Yesterday, I commented Trump Says Iran’s Response Is “Totally Unacceptable” OK, So What?

    “I Don’t Like It,” Says Trump.

    I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called “Representatives.” I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

    That was a damn feeble response by Trump.

    OK, Mr. President, what are you going to do about it besides whine on Truth Social.

    Today, Trump moaned to the press and fell asleep in the oval office. I am not sure if the nap was before or after his life support message.

    Trump’s Three Losing Options

    1. War with unknown consequences
    2. A humiliating deal that lets oil pass through while negotiations continue
    3. Status quo and rising inflation, gasoline prices, fertilizer prices, diesel, etc.

    So which is it?

    Meanwhile, please note the warning of Saudi Aramco.

    Oil Market Will Lose 100 Million Barrels a Week if Hormuz Remains Closed

    That’s the real news of the day.

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