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Rising oil prices have made inflation the more pressing concern for the Federal Reserve recently, though the employment side of its dual mandate bears watching amid volatility in recent nonfarm payrolls reports. That’s why the April jobs report is a key economic report to monitor.
In January, for instance, the U.S. added 160,000 new positions. And in February, it lost 133,000 jobs. March job gains came in at 178,000. All told, the U.S. has added 205,000 new jobs so far in 2026, or 68,000 per month on average.
“That amount indicates healthy employment growth for an economy that is experiencing slow labor-force growth,” writes David Payne, staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, in the Kiplinger jobs outlook.
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ADP jobs report comes in higher than expected
Wall Street got a glimpse of the strength of the current labor market on Wednesday morning with ADP’s National Employment Report, which showed private payrolls rose by 109,000 in April — the strongest pace since early 2025. This was more than the 84,000 new jobs economists expected and the 61,000 private payrolls added in March.
Small and large-sized companies experienced the biggest increases in payrolls last month, but “we’re seeing some softness in the middle,” says Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. “Large companies have resources to deploy, and small ones are the most nimble, both important advantages in a complex labor environment.”
Education and healthcare led the gains, adding 61,000 new jobs, while business and professional services saw the biggest decline, losing 8,000 positions.
While this could spark some enthusiasm for the April jobs report, Raymond James economists warn against making that assumption. “While this data would typically signal a positive outlook for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, recent trends suggest caution, as the two measures have shown notable divergence in prior releases,” they say.
When is the next jobs report?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the next jobs report at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time on Friday, May 8. Economists expect the U.S. to have added 55,000 new jobs in April and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%.
Ahead of the April jobs report, we looked at what economists, strategists and other experts on Wall Street expect the data to show and what the results could mean for the Fed and investors going forward. You’ll find these outlooks, edited at times for brevity, below.
What to expect from the April jobs report
“Fifth Third Commercial Bank forecasts for Friday’s jobs report to show employers added 120,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, holding the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings likely picked up to a 3.8% annual increase from 3.5% in the March report, partially cushioning the blow to the cost of living from higher gas prices. If this forecast is borne out, job growth will have averaged around 80,000 per month since the start of the year. That outpaces growth of job seekers, which has slowed due to an aging population and immigration restrictions.” – Bill Adams, Chief U.S. Economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank
“After job growth came in above all expectations in March, we look for April NFP to print at a solid 80k, which would be comfortably above breakeven. Job gains should remain concentrated in education and healthcare, where AI uptake has been slower and demographics are a tailwind. Warmer weather may support leisure & hospitality, trade, transport & utilities, and construction (which could also benefit from data center demand). However, uncertainty from the Iran war might weigh on hiring in some sectors, including leisure & hospitality, and trade & transport.” – Shruti Mishra, U.S. Economist at BofA Securities
“Our headline (+50k forecast vs. +178k previous) payrolls forecast reflects a return closer to the average pace of job gains over the latter half of 2025, which, in our view, is near the breakeven rate. As a quick reminder, March’s payroll data were much stronger than expected, with broad-based gains across industries. However, some of that strength was a function of a strike resolution at a major healthcare company as well as a possible seasonal boost from the shifting Easter holiday.” – Deutsche Bank economists
“The labor market has been on solid but precarious footing for some time — not exactly growing but also not significantly deteriorating. Amid ongoing global conflict, the fallout of a continuing oil shock and continued economic policy uncertainty, it would take more than one strong report on the labor market to signal we’re facing a different labor environment.” – Elizabeth Renter, Senior Economist at NerdWallet
“The April U.S. jobs report is expected to show 65,000 jobs created, down sharply from 178,000 in March, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. A strong beat could reignite Fed rate hike bets; traders currently price in a 25% chance of a hike in 2026.” – Lukman Otunuga, Head of Market Research at FXTM
“The labor market is still stuck in the low fire, low hire dynamic that has prevailed for the past two years. With demand for workers little changed, the supply of workers has become a bigger factor in the pace of job growth. Last month’s 178K rise in payrolls, even accounting for the ~30K boost from completed strikes, is untenable given the immigration and demographic constraints on labor force growth. We expect some payback in April and estimate total payrolls advanced 70K, with private payrolls up 75K.” – Wells Fargo economists
