A can of Coors Light beer and a Ford F-150 pickup truck.
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Brandon Bell | Getty Images
Aluminum’s surge to multiyear highs in the wake of the Iran war is creating cost pressures for the businesses that manufacture everything from cars to beer cans.
Aluminum on the London Metal Exchange has surged more than 13% since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. The commodity is now up around 19% so far in 2026 and has touched its highest levels since 2022 this year.
Aluminum in 2026
Prices are being driven higher by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway for the delivery of aluminum coming from the Middle East, according to Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett.
He estimated that 7% the world’s aluminum is sourced from the region. Military strikes have damaged facilities and taken about 3% of the world’s supply off the market, the analyst said.
Impact to businesses
At Ford, Chief Financial Officer Sherry House said the Iran war is clouding the automaker’s outlook for aluminum, a key component of its F-150 pickup truck. The Detroit-based producer was expecting commodity headwinds to top $2 billion — roughly double the previous estimate — due largely to higher price tags for aluminum, House said.
“It’s going to be a bit hard to be able to predict 2027 at this point given the volatility that we’ve seen in the commodities,” House told analysts late last month. “With respect to steel and aluminum, in particular, even before the Middle East situation started, we were already seeing global industry shortages.”
Aluminum prices have been a key focus of Ford’s investor class, according to UBS analyst Joseph Spak. Ford shares have tumbled 17% since the Iran war began. The S&P 500 climbed 5.7% over the same period.
But Spak called Wall Street’s concern about the commodity’s price “overblown” in a note to clients last month, adding that Ford has “hedged” its exposure to aluminum for this year.
Ford vs. the S&P 500 since March
Molson Coors finance chief Tracey Joubert said last week that the rising price of aluminum supplied to the U.S. Midwest added around $30 million to the cost of goods sold in the first quarter compared with the prior year. The Coors Light and Miller Lite parent — which has used a recyclable aluminum can for more than six decades — expects further inflation for the commodity in the current quarter.
Anthony DiSilvestro, CFO at Keurig Dr Pepper, listed aluminum as one of several products that have seen price increases due to the Iran war. If those higher costs remain longer term, the Canada Dry and Snapple maker will have to create mitigation plans focused on protecting margins, DiSilvestro said
“As with many CPG companies, we have both direct and indirect exposure to commodities that have been impacted by the Middle East conflict,” DiSilvestro said on a call with analysts last month, using an acronym for consumer-packaged goods.
Dr Pepper soda in the warehouse at the Dr Pepper Snapple Group bottling plant in Louisville, Kentucky, in April 2015.
Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | Getty Images
More pressure ahead
Wall Street doesn’t see relief coming in the near term.
UBS expects aluminum’s supply to grow 0.3% in 2026, down from a prior estimate of 2.4%. The bank cited disruption in the Middle East and limited room for capacity increases in Europe.
Aluminum cans are shown during a production run before being filled with craft beer at Black Plague Brewery in Oceanside, California, on March 14, 2025.
Mike Blake | Reuters
Beyond the conflict, Bernstein’s Brackett said, aluminum requires large amounts of energy, meaning prices are also connected to cost of natural gas and coal. The rising cost of these fuels due to the war has added further price pressure, Brackett said.
“Aluminum prices rise with input costs,” Brackett wrote to clients last week. “There is upside risk for a positive price impact to aluminum not only from its disrupted supply chain, but the disruption of its sources of power.”
