Wise men say only fools rush in, but now big oil can’t help falling in love with Venezuela. Oh sure—after the experts scoffed at President Trump’s call to invest in Venezuela, they are now knocking down the doors, or at least taking a second look at, to get in as the progress being made in the country with the biggest proven oil reserves on the planet, not to mention gold and rare earth minerals is looking too good to ignore.
This is good to keep in mind because the naysayers trying to paint Operation Epic Fury as a flop are many of the same voices who swore removing Nicolás Maduro would be a total disaster. Toppling the Venezuelan dictator turned out to be a huge victory—not just for the people of Venezuela, but also for the United States and the stability of the entire hemisphere.
Despite early jitters from Big Oil, they are starting to get that dreaded fear of missing out and are thinking of getting in this game—as I told you they would. The opportunity has been getting for attractive as U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil have been easing and proving how quickly a country can recover from the slavery chains of socialism into a booming bright future when they start to privatize government poorly run operations and move back words the freedom of capitalism.
The progress since the U.S. captured Maduro on January 3, 2026, in a swift special forces raid has been remarkable. Venezuela’s bright future is already delivering: Venezuelan heavy oil is softening the blow from the loss of Iranian barrels, and with Venezuela’s massive reserves, any loss of Iranian production could become negligible on the world stage. Bret Baier from Fox News reported on another milestone as he told the story how American Airlines landed their first flight into Caracas, and the U.S. is facilitating opposition Leader María Corina Machado’s return ahead of a potential challenge to Interim President Delcy Rodríguez, who is now working with the U.S. despite her checkered regime past.
This amazing story was also highlighted in the Wall Street Journal as they reported that “ U.S. oil companies are returning to Venezuela to explore reviving oil fields, driven by high oil prices and new investor-friendly laws. In the lobby of the J.W. Marriott in Caracas, the sound of “Spanish spoken with a Texas twang” fills the air as engineers, lawyers, and emissaries from the U.S. oil industry pitch plans to revive the country’s rundown oil fields. Dozens have met with a receptive Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s acting president. One small Texas operator was even heard boasting that his company is nimble enough to get oil flowing faster than the oil giants.[take that big oil!]
The Journal says that “Even and —companies that just months ago deemed Venezuela too risky—have come back to town for a second look. “It was unmistakable, the sense of impending opportunity,” said Jon Hughes, the chief executive of boutique energy investment bank Petrie Partners, who visited the bustling hotel last week. “There were so many Americans meeting with so many Venezuelans. Both sides are engaged in a constructive way, with a shared vision of making things function better and getting production up.”
The journal also reported that the U.S. Embassy has set up camp at the J.W. Marriott to escape years of disrepair.
In recent weeks, both Exxon and Conoco have met with Venezuelan officials and sent technical teams. Exxon’s team inspected the Cerro Negro heavy-oil project that it operated before Hugo Chávez nationalized much of the country’s energy infrastructure in 2007. Conoco is assessing oil-and-gas opportunities. Neither has committed capital yet, but their openness marks a sharp shift.
This is a far cry from the beginning of the year. Back in January, Exxon CEO Darren Woods described Venezuela as “uninvestable.” Both companies had sued Venezuela after nationalization—Conoco still seeking $12 billion in restitution, Exxon about $1 billion.
The main reason for the industry’s U-turn? A sustained jump in oil prices this year, with expectations that fallout from the Iran war will keep prices lofty for months or even years. A sharp rise in prices and the government’s moves to change laws in favor of foreign investors have softened opposition.
President Trump’s energy adviser Jarrod Agen landed in Caracas and met with Rodríguez. Companies in his delegation—including Hunt Oil, Crossover Energy, HKN, and Mercuris—signed memorandums of understanding to lay the groundwork for operations. Agen noted that new direct flights will create a commercial corridor: “How do you get the employees down here? How do you get executives down here?” he said, arguing regular commercial flights will translate into more investment.
This surge of interest validates the bold move to remove Maduro. With American energy companies re-engaging, Venezuelan oil production ramping up, and heavy flowing to help stabilize global markets, the long-term payoff for U.S. energy security and the Venezuelan people looks stronger than ever. The naysayers got it wrong again.
And the naysayers are getting it wrong on Operation Epic Fury as well. Launched on February 28, 2026, the U.S. military campaign has transitioned into a highly effective naval blockade of Iranian ports and shipping lanes. Critics who predicted a quick Iranian rebound or limited economic damage have been proven overly optimistic—again.
Despite Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declaring a “new chapter” for the Strait of Hormuz on Persian Gulf Day the reality is that Iran’s economy is crashing. President Trump, while being briefed on additional military options—including short, powerful strikes on key infrastructure—continues to tout the blockade’s success as the smarter play. In recent remarks he declared: “The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can’t have a nuclear weapon.”
CENTCOM data backs him up: 41 Iranian tankers carrying an estimated 69 million barrels of crude remain stranded, costing Tehran roughly $500 million per day in lost revenue. The Iranian economy—already strained—is described by Trump as “a dead economy… in real trouble… starving for cash… in a state of collapse.” He has repeatedly said the regime must “cry uncle” and return to negotiations on a nuclear deal.
Bottom line for energy traders: the blockade works exactly as designed. While headline risk keeps a floor under prices, the lack of actual full closure or major new incidents has allowed crude to stabilize rather than run away to the upside. Watch for any signs that Trump green-lights additional kinetic options—the next move could send back toward the $120–$130 zone in a heartbeat. Until then, the market is pricing in “maximum pressure” that is already delivering maximum pain to Tehran and any signs that Iran comes to their senses than oil could crash on fill the Iran war gap on the charts at back st 6723. . In fact, in some ways from this point, we might see more downside potential than upside risk as another price spike could cool demand. Today oil prices dropped after a report that Iran delivered on Thursday to the U.S. through the Pakistani mediators.
showed some signs of life yesterday, catching a nice bid after the EIA injection report. At these price levels, it’s getting to tempt to accumulate a position and try to sell on a spike, even as the fundamentals stay heavy heading deeper into shoulder season. Our friends at the EIA printed a +79 Bcf injection — a tick lighter than the ~83 Bcf street expectation and well off the prior week’s +103 Bcf monster. Working gas now sits at 2,142 Bcf, still +153 Bcf (about 7.7%) above the 5-year average and +116 Bcf over last year. Stocks are fat, no doubt about it, but that smaller building gave the market just enough of a reason to squeeze higher and show some life.
June futures hovering right around the $2.79 zone this morning with a little upside follow-through. We’re scraping some low levels here, and when you’ve got an EIA beat plus any weather pop, the shorts can get nervous quickly. Classic spot to nibble if you’re quick on the trigger.
Fundamentals & Shoulder Season Reality: Shoulder season is doing its thing — mild temps keeping power burn in check while production stays strong. Storage is already well-supplied, and the injection season is just ramping. That keeps the longer-term pressure on unless we get some real heat or export fireworks. But don’t fight the tape on the short-term bounces; these oversold levels have trap potential when the specs pile in.
Fox Weather is calling for an unseasonable cooldown across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and into the Midwest/New England as we kick off May. Temps running 10-15°F below average with rain and even some 30s overnight lows in spots. This should keep a little extra heating demand hanging around longer than normal and could help slow those storage builds in the near term. Moderate demand showing up on the maps for the next week with cooler systems tracking through key population areas.
Bottom Line: Nat gas found a floor after the lighter print and the cooler Fox Weather outlook gives it a little extra tailwind short-term. Fundamentals are still bearish into full shoulder mode with fat storage, but at these depressed prices the risk/reward screams “buy the dip, sell the rip” for a trade. Stay nimble — one hot spell or LNG pop and we could see a real spike.
