The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its inflation report
for March on April 10th.
The BLS reported the annual inflation at 3.3% for March. But when we look at it to 2 decimal places, we 3.26%.
- CPI Index rose sharply from 326.785 to 330.213
- Monthly Inflation for March 2026 was a massive 1.05%, up from 0.47% in February and 0.22% in March 2025.
- Next release May 12th, 2026
Annual Inflation Table
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
| 2026 | 2.39% | 2.41% | 3.26% | |||||||||
| 2025 | 3.00% | 2.82% | 2.39% | 2.31% | 2.35% | 2.67% | 2.70% | 2.92% | 3.01% | NA | 2.74% | 2.68% |
| 2024 | 3.09% | 3.15% | 3.48% | 3.36% | 3.27% | 2.97% | 2.89% | 2.53% | 2.44% | 2.60% | 2.75% | 2.89% |
| 2023 | 6.41% | 6.04% | 4.98% | 4.93% | 4.05% | 2.97% | 3.18% | 3.67% | 3.70% | 3.24% | 3.14% | 3.35% |
BLS Commentary:
“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.3 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for energy rose 10.9 percent in March, led by a 21.2-percent increase in the index for gasoline which accounted for nearly three quarters of the monthly all items increase. The shelter index also increased in March, rising 0.3 percent. The index for food was unchanged over the month as the index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent, while the index for food at home fell 0.2 percent.
Factors Driving Current Inflation
- The War in the Middle East has closed the Straits of Hormuz, disrupting Oil flows.
- The FED has switched from a Tight Money policy to looser money.
- In addition to oil, many other commodities flow through the Straits, like Fertilizer.
Although March did NOT see an increase in food prices…
Some commentators are suggesting massive increases in food prices are on the horizon due to either a shortage or just higher prices for fertilizer. Nitrogen fertilizer is the primary fertilizer for Corn (and the U.S. uses corn in almost everything, i.e., corn syrup, corn starch, corn oil, dextrose, maltodextrin, corn meal, corn flour, ethanol, animal feed, and High-fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS). Fortunately, the primary source of Nitrogen fertilizer is Natural Gas. ~70–80% of the energy used to produce nitrogen fertilizers comes from natural gas, and the U.S. has abundant Natural Gas, but worldwide food shortages could drive up prices here as well.
The key is the Haber–Bosch process (invented by Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch in the early 1900s). That process takes nitrogen from the air (N₂), combines it with hydrogen derived mostly from natural gas (CH₄), and produces ammonia (NH₃). Ammonia becomes fertilizers like urea and ammonium nitrate.
One advantage of a corn shortage might be a more rapid reduction in the use of HFCS, as Robert Kennedy has recommended. HFCS proliferation is a major component of the U.S. obesity epidemic.
BLS Inflation Components:
Looking at Table A below, we can see that on an annual basis, energy commodities like gasoline, fuel oil, and other energy products are up significantly on a monthly and annual basis.
Other big annual gainers are shelter, transportation services, and medical care. But Food at home and some other commodities like vehicles are still only up moderately.
On a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis, we can see that only energy is a problem; virtually everything else is green. 
Oil Prices
- March Oil prices averaged $84.75
- So far in April, oil prices have been all over the place based on the news of the day, spiking to $120 one day and falling to $90 the next.
See: Historical Oil Prices Chart and Tables for more info.
March 2026 FED Summary:
The Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at its March 17–18 meeting. The decision was nearly unanimous (11-1 vote). Governor Stephen Miran dissented, preferring a 25 basis point cut. As a result of this meeting, one additional rate cut is expected in 2026 (bringing the rate to ~3.4% by year-end).
But in light of higher oil prices due to the war one might expect this rate cut to be postponed. However, the FED might be forced to cut rates due to economic fallout of the war’s increased spending. Historically, wars force the FED’s hand, whether it causes inflation or not.
For more see: FED Monetary Policy and Inflation.
1 Month MIP Inflation Prediction vs. Actual:
Unfortunately, the MIP is unable to predict events like wars, pandemics, and political theater, so it drastically underestimated March inflation. It is interesting to note that inflation probably would have been up slightly even without the war.
Go here to view our current MIP projection.
Inflation Chart
Monthly Inflation Compared to Previous Years:
The monthly inflation rate for March 2026 was 1.05% compared to 0.47% in February, and 0.22 a year ago.
See: Monthly Inflation Rate for more information and a complete table of Unadjusted Monthly Rates.
Misery Index
Unemployment 4.30% + Inflation 3.26% = 7.56%
This month, unemployment is down 0.1%, but inflation is also up sharply, so the misery index is up to 7.56%. For the first half of 2024, the Misery index hovered around 7% before falling to the high 6s. It finished the year at 6.99% and moved up very slightly to 7.00% in January 2025.
Read More on the Misery Index…
Rate of Change
The NYSE ROC chart generated a BUY signal in January.
The NASDAQ ROC generated a BUY signal back in September.
Both BTC and ETH have generated Sell Signals. BTC in August, about a month prior to the all-time high. ETH generated a sell signal in November.
For more information, see: Crypto ROC.
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