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Europe boosted imports from Russia’s flagship liquefied natural gas project in the first three months of the year, as the Middle East conflict puts pressure on global supplies.
Imports from the Yamal LNG project in Siberia increased by 17 per cent to 5mn tonnes in the first quarter compared to the same period in 2025, according to data from energy research group Kpler.
This led to EU member states spending an estimated €2.88bn on gas from the vast plant, according to estimates by environmental non-profit organisation Urgewald.
The findings come as supplies of Qatari LNG have dried up following damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East and Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz waterway. They suggest the Yamal project has profited from the surge in gas prices linked to the Middle East crisis.
Despite the hit to global supplies, however, Brussels has shown little appetite to revisit its planned ban on Russian LNG imports, due to take force in January 2027. A ban on imports under short-term contracts has already come into effect.
Yamal accounts for the vast majority of Russian LNG imports to the EU. The bloc took 69 — or 97 per cent — of the 71 cargoes from Yamal in the first three months of the year, with 25 of these received in March, more than in each of January and February.
This compared to 87 per cent of 68 cargoes during the same period in 2025. Remaining cargoes were routed to Asia.
The drop in cargoes shipped to Asia this year is partly driven by an EU ban that took effect last year that prevents the transfer of Russian LNG between vessels. It also stops ships from mooring at ports in the bloc before taking cargoes on to non-EU countries. Asian demand for Russian LNG was also relatively low prior to the Iran crisis.
But the 5mn tonnes of natural gas delivered to Europe in the first three months shows there is “no appetite from European buyers to stop buying Russian LNG”, said Sebastian Rötters, a campaigner at Urgewald. Of the 5mn, 1.8mn was delivered in March, according to the Kpler data.
The estimated increase in EU spending on Russian LNG in the first quarter is based on a sharp rise in gas prices last month. European gas prices averaged around €52.87 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in March compared to €35/MWh in January and February.
While details of the Yamal contracts are not known, people familiar with the project have said that prices under long-term agreements have a degree of flexibility and rise in times of high energy prices.
The European Commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Commission data for 2026 shows that more than two-thirds of the LNG imported to the bloc to date has come from the US, indicating the highest level of dependency on American supplies to date.
However, average gas storage levels across the bloc remain below normal averages ahead of the key summer refilling season.
EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen last month defended the EU’s upcoming ban on Russian LNG, saying it would be “a mistake for us to repeat what we did in the past”, referring to the bloc’s heavy dependence on pipeline supplies from Russia before the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Should Brussels continue with its planned ban, however, the Kpler data indicates that Yamal would struggle to find other takers for its production, Rotters argued.
“All the numbers show a dependency of Russia on the European market,” he said.
