European futures opened higher on Tuesday as markets are awaiting developments in Iran after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened escalation and attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges if a deal is not reached and the Strait of Hormuz not opened by 8 p.m. eastern time today.
The May 2026 contract of the Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the European benchmark for gas trading, opened 3% higher in Amsterdam on Tuesday, with prices trading just above $58 (50 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh).
Since the war in the Middle East began and the closed Strait of Hormuz trapped about 20% of daily global LNG flows, Europe’s benchmark gas prices have soared by about 55%. On February 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran, the front-month futures were trading at $37 (32 euros) per MWh.
Europe, where gas storage sites are depleted to levels not seen in years after the winter, faces a tough refill season in the spring and summer as spot LNG prices have soared and Asia is beating Europe for spot supply.
Asia gets about 85% of the LNG supply that used to transit the Strait of Hormuz, and while Europe’s direct supply exposure is much lower at about 15%, the price spike threatens to derail the refill season.
No LNG cargo has transited the Strait of Hormuz in over a month, as two vessels carrying Qatari LNG were forced to abandon an attempt to exit the Strait of Hormuz in what would have been the first export of Qatari LNG since the war began.
Gas prices could spike even more if the war escalates to U.S. strikes on vital Iranian infrastructure and Iranian retaliation and continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“The entire country can be taken out in one night – and that night might be tomorrow night,” President Trump said, referring to Iran, at a White House press conference on Monday night.
