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Question: We’re 60 with $550K saved and still paying for one kid’s college and our mortgage. We know we’ll inherit $3 million when my 92-year-old father passes away. Can we retire now, even though we can’t technically afford it?
Answer: By 2048, an astounding $124 trillion is expected to change hands. It’s being dubbed the Great Wealth Transfer, and it could be a game-changer for folks who stand to inherit a large sum.
If you’re 60 years old with a $550,000 nest egg, you may be on track for a secure retirement, provided you keep plugging away and saving for another five to 10 years. Even without further retirement plan contributions, $550,000 at 60 could grow to about $700,000 by age 65 or about $900,000 by age 70 if invested at a fairly conservative 5% return. With modest expenses and decent Social Security benefits, you could live pretty comfortably.
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But retiring at 60 with $550,000 is much riskier. Not only does your nest egg have to last much longer in that scenario, but you may have other expenses eating away at your savings, like a child’s college tuition and a lingering mortgage balance.
That said, if you’re expecting a $3 million inheritance from your 92-year-old father, that could change the numbers quite a bit in your favor. But is it safe to retire at 60 in your situation? Not necessarily.
The danger of banking on an inheritance
If you’re aware of your father’s assets and estate plan, then you may be fairly confident that his $3 million in wealth will eventually become yours. But there’s a difference between keeping that information in the back of your mind and acting on it in the form of an early retirement.
As Zachary Mineur, CFA, CFP, and Chief Investment Officer at Independence Square Advisors, says, “I generally counsel against using inheritance expectations in a financial plan.”
First, Mineur explains that the $3 million estimate may not hold.
“That $3 million could be depleted quickly if the aging parent requires $10,000 to $15,000 a month in an assisted living or memory care facility, doubly so if there is a bear market in whatever securities that cash is invested in while it’s being drawn down,” he explains.
But that’s not the only issue.
“The hard truth is that there is no such thing as a ‘sure inheritance,'” Mineur says. “People change their minds, especially near the end of their lives… While the chance may be perceived to be small, banking your retirement on the potential for an inheritance is a dangerous move.”
Jonathan White, trust and estate attorney at Jordan & White, LLC, agrees.
“Counting on an inheritance to fund retirement is one of the most common and most dangerous planning mistakes I see,” he says. “The problem isn’t that people are greedy. The problem is that inheritance is a projection, not a guarantee… A 92-year-old father could live another five years or another 15. That’s a wide margin of error when you’re building a retirement budget around it.”
White says that in this situation, relying on an inheritance is especially dangerous, given that you don’t have a particularly large nest egg to begin with.
“If this couple retires now, draws down their $550,000 during a market downturn, and the inheritance is delayed or reduced, they may not have time to recover,” he explains. “At 60, they likely have 30 or more years ahead of them. That’s a long runway if the plan works. It’s an equally long runway if it doesn’t.”
“A potential inheritance doesn’t have to be invisible in a financial plan. It just can’t be the foundation of one.” — Jonathan White
Factor in your inheritance the right way
It may be that you’ve looked at your father’s estate documents and are certain that you’re the designated beneficiary of his estate. There’s no need to ignore that information, but you shouldn’t necessarily make near-term financial decisions based on it.
“A potential inheritance doesn’t have to be invisible in a financial plan,” says White. “It just can’t be the foundation of one.”
He says a reasonable approach is to model two scenarios: one where the inheritance arrives on the expected timeline and one where it doesn’t come at all.
“If the second scenario is still workable, you have a real plan. If it isn’t, you don’t,” he says.
It’s also important to understand the structure of your father’s estate before planning around it, says White.
“Is the $3 million in a trust, a taxable estate, retirement accounts, or real property? Each of those carries different tax treatment and different timelines for distribution,” White insists.
A $3 million gross estate, he explains, may yield something meaningfully different once taxes and probate costs are factored in.
“Getting clarity on that now, with the father’s cooperation if possible, is not morbid planning. It’s responsible planning,” White says.
Mineur says that in these situations, he recommends discussing the possibility of gifting some assets while the parent is alive, or placing assets in a trust that would make the inheritance not necessarily contingent on death.
“Comprehensive financial and estate planning can often provide for many of the what-if scenarios that distributing assets through a basic will cannot,” Mineur says.
You may want to delay retirement
You may feel ready to wrap up your career at 60. But unless you can make that plan work on a $550,000 nest with outstanding tuition and mortgage payments, delaying your workforce exit may be a more prudent move.
“The short answer to the question is no, they probably shouldn’t retire now,” says White. “But if they use the next few years to eliminate the mortgage, finish funding college, and build a clearer picture of what that estate actually looks like, the picture may change significantly.”
