(World Oil) – Missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City are expected to have a prolonged impact on global LNG supply, with recovery timelines now likely to extend well beyond initial expectations, according to new analysis from Wood Mackenzie.
The attacks damaged key infrastructure, including the Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) facility and multiple LNG trains, following earlier disruptions that had already halted production. Qatar declared force majeure in early March, removing approximately 80 MMtpa of LNG supply—nearly 20% of global availability—from the market.
Early projections had assumed a relatively swift restart, with full production ramping up within weeks. However, Wood Mackenzie now expects a significantly longer recovery period, depending on the extent of damage and required repairs.
A prolonged outage could materially tighten global gas markets. Qatar produced an average of 6.7 MMt of LNG per month in 2025, meaning even a five- to six-month disruption would push global supply into year-on-year decline. Each additional month of downtime could remove roughly 1.5% of annual LNG availability.
The disruption also threatens to delay Qatar’s North Field East expansion, which was expected to add 32 MMtpa of capacity. Any slippage into 2027 or beyond could constrain global LNG supply growth through 2028.
Asian buyers, which account for roughly 90% of Qatar’s LNG exports, are expected to be most affected, with demand likely to weaken amid higher prices. In Europe, reduced LNG availability may limit storage injections and accelerate fuel switching.
Operators globally are expected to defer maintenance and maximize output where possible, as markets adjust to reduced supply and heightened geopolitical risk.
