More downside as interest rates continue to rise. The US 2-Year Treasury is up 9 bps to 3.93%, a level not seen since January ’25. The US 10-Year is also up 9bps to 4.38%, a level we last saw in July ’25. International rates are following, with Canada +9bps, Germany +7bps, the UK +16bps.
This appears to be due to inflation fears, as the realization that even if the Iran situation is ended soon, energy markets will likely be in disarray for several months. Higher rates are problematic for the struggling housing market and will add costs to the heavy refinance schedule for both the government and commercial real estate. We’re also seeing corporate credit spreads continue to widen, which started in early February.
Precious metals are softer again, with down to $4,570/oz. is down 2.4% to below $70/oz. is down 1.7% to 5.37/oz. Rumors are swirling that Arab nations are dumping gold to fund energy shortfalls.
The is higher, back to 99.5 on the back of higher interest rates. Crypto is surprisingly firm with holding on to $69.8K, +2.7% for the trailing month, though still down 19.7% YTD.
As we go into the weekend, investors are being forced to wonder if further damage will be done to energy assets in the Mideast, particularly refining assets, or perhaps Trump will make a bold announcement that a solution has been reached. A stalemate in Iran will not be helpful either, as current energy prices will bring rising recession fears.
The trend remains volatile.
