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When does Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair end?
President Donald Trump has not been subtle in his dislike of Fed Chair Powell. But the question of whether or not Trump can fire Powell has quieted down in recent months, given that the Fed chair’s term is up on May 15, 2026.
In January, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Chair Powell once his term is up. “Warsh was Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s right-hand man during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and was his primary liaison to Wall Street, which earned him credibility he still retains,” writes Kiplinger investing editor David Dittman. “Markets see Warsh as a source of stability should Trump continue to pressure the central bank. He served on the Federal Reserve Board from February 2006 through March 2011.”
However, Warsh’s path to Fed chair is not guaranteed at this point. Indeed, Republican Senator Thom Tillis from North Carolina, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, has vowed to block any Federal Reserve nomination until a Department of Justice probe into Powell is resolved.
“This is about this is bedrock principle of Fed independence,” Tillis told reporters earlier this month, according to CNBC. “The reason why I came out so strong so early is I believe that we, I, have no earthly idea what the market reaction would have been if suddenly the perception is that the Fed chair serves at the pleasure of the President, right?”
Tillis also called the administration’s efforts to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook are “sophomoric.” However, the senator said he is “already impressed” with Warsh.
For what it’s worth, Powell’s term as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve ends on January 31, 2028.
– Karee Venema
It’s a big week for global central bank meetings
It’s a big week for central bank meetings around the world. In addition to the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of England (BoE) will be meeting to issue their latest policy decisions.
According to Jim Reid, global head of Macro Research and Thematic Strategy at Deutsche Bank, this marks the first time the four central banks have held their gatherings in the same week since December 2021.
“All of them will have a very complex backdrop to deal with, shaped by geopolitical risk, volatile energy prices, and unsettled inflation dynamics,” Reid says. “Clearly, the Middle East is the center of attention for markets right now.”
It’s widely expected that all four central banks will leave interest rates unchanged this time around, says Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, but he expects the Fed and the Bank of England to resume rate cuts later this year.
Nathan doesn’t expect rate cuts from the ECB until next year, while the BoJ will likely raise rates at some point down the road. “However, if the current spike in oil prices persists, we may need to revise these views as policymakers grapple with the conflicting inflationary pressure and brakes on economic growth that come with higher energy costs,” he adds.
– Karee Venema
Stocks are higher to start Fed week
Stocks are trading higher to start Fed week as bargain hunters swoop in following last week’s third straight weekly loss for U.S. markets.
The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1.1% at 47,045, the broader S&P 500 is 1.2% higher at 6,708, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has gained 1.3% to 22,390.
Mega-cap stocks are creating tailwinds for the broader market. Meta Platforms (META), for one, is 3% higher on unconfirmed reports that the Facebook parent is planning to lay off 20% of its workforce.
And chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) is up 2.3% ahead of GTC, its annual artificial intelligence conference.
As for oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures are down 3.7% at $95.06 per barrel, but remain more than 40% higher month to date.
– Karee Venema
Housing market could keep inflation anchored, say Manulife John Hancock co-chief investment strategists
Recent inflation data has been mixed. The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was lower on an annual basis compared to January – 2.4% vs 2.7% to start the year.
But the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – came in at its highest level since March 2024.
Part of this difference, say Emily Roland and Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategists at Manulife John Hancock Investments, is that the CPI gives greater weight to shelter costs, which have been slowly trending down.
And while markets now consider the most recently reported CPI and PCE readings dated given that spiking energy costs – including higher gas prices – have raised inflation expectations and lowered rate-cut odds, the two believe shelter costs could provide some stability.
“While we are fully aware of the risk to inflation rising due to the oil price spike, we would not forget about shelter/housing as a key reason inflationary dynamics may be anchored to some degree,” Roland and Miskin write in emailed commentary. “The 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked last week from just over 6% to now nearly 6.5%. Higher mortgage rates, greater volatility in markets (hindering the growing wealth effect), and increased economic/policy uncertainty (likely to weigh on consumer confidence) could weigh further on the housing market as the year goes on.”
This scenario, according to the strategists, “would suggest a more anchored inflation backdrop than the market’s knee-jerk reaction to higher oil prices we have seen recently.”
– Karee Venema
Karee Venema
With over a decade of experience writing about the stock market, Karee Venema is the senior investing editor at Kiplinger.com. She joined the publication in April 2021, and oversees a wide range of investing coverage, including content focused on equities, fixed income, mutual funds, ETFs, macroeconomics and more.
Fed meeting schedule for 2026
The next Fed meeting, which runs from March 17 to March 18, marks the second gathering of 2026.
“The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks,” writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature, “When Is the Next Fed Meeting?“.
The Federal Open Market Committee “is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary,” Burrows adds, noting that “the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981.”
Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair’s press conference at 2:30 pm.
Here is the full remaining Fed meeting schedule for 2026:
March 17 to 18
April 28 to 29
June 16 to 17
July 28 to 29
September 15 to 16
October 27 to 28
December 8 to 9
