This Week In A Nutshell: We’re in for an unpredictable week with potentially significant moves in rates between the ongoing Iran conflict and important job market data on Friday.
Upcoming Attractions
The two key economic data points this week are the jobs report and retail sales, both on Friday. But fallout from the evolving conflict with Iran could overshadow both.
- Jobs Report (Friday): Job creation is expected to be lower than last month’s blockbuster number, around 60k vs 130k last month. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up slightly, from 4.3% to 4.4%. These numbers would indicate a labor marketthat remains sluggish but not recessionary.
- Retail Sales (Friday): Core retail sales (excludes cars, gas, and building materials) is expected to pick up to 0.3% month over month vs. -0.1% last month.
Last Week’s Highlights
AI sentiment dominated the market last week. President Trump’s state of the union address was long, but short on content.
The tariff situation continues to evolve slowly after the Supreme Court ruled against IEEPA, but rates do not appear to be moving much on that news. Similarly, there was a slew of economic data last week, but little was meaningful enough to move rates.
The average mortgage rate dropped below 6% last week for the first time in three and a half years primarily because negative AI sentiment drove money from stocks to the safety of bond markets.
Diving a Little Deeper
10-year yields and mortgage rates have jumped about 11 bps so far today as the market moves from the AI doomerism of last week to concerns about a war with Iran.
What should we ultimately expect for housing and rates? It’s hard to say. In the short term, we could see volatility, but ultimately, the net effect may be pretty small.
- The main transmission mechanism of the Iran conflict to the real economy and financial markets is through oil markets. But the length and scope of the energy disruption is uncertain at this stage.
- There is tension in how rates respond to an oil shock. Higher energy prices can lead to higher rates through inflation expectations. Although the Fed mostly cares about core inflation, which excludes energy prices, sustained high energy prices can lead to higher prices in other goods/services. However, there are also negative economic growth implications that would argue for lower rates. In addition, geopolitical turmoil sometimes leads to lower rates as investors dial back risk to seek out safety in bond markets.
Redfin Housing Market Reports
Nearly 1 in 7 Home Sales Are Falling Through, a Record For This Time of Year
- Home-purchase agreements are canceled at the highest rate in San Antonio, where sellers outnumber buyers two to one–giving buyers the upper hand and plenty of choices.
The Typical First-Time Homebuyer Is 35 Years Old
- The median age of first-time buyers dipped slightly from 2024 to 2025, from 36 to 35.
- For repeat buyers, the median age is 47, down from a peak of 52.
- Redfin determined the median age of homebuyers using U.S. Census Bureau data; this report includes a methodological dive into why our data differs from NAR’s.
Homebuying Affordability Improves As Mortgage Rates Fall to Lowest Level in Over 3 Years
- Lower rates haven’t yet brought homebuyers off the sidelines, but hope is in the air as we approach spring.
More Homeowners Have a Rate Above 6% Than a Rate Below 3% For the First Time in 5 Years
- 21% of U.S. mortgaged homeowners have a rate of 6% or higher, the highest share in a decade. 20% have a rate under 3%, the lowest share in 5 years.
- The shift in mortgage-rate distribution reflects the fact that rates have been above 6% for nearly 4 years.
- Redfin economists say this could be an opportune time to refinance: Rates are now below 6% for the first time in three and a half years.
- For home sellers, the lock-in effect is fading. But some homeowners still feel locked in: 16% of homeowners are staying put rather than moving because they don’t want to give up their low rate, per a Redfin survey.
West Palm Beach’s Luxury Housing Market Is Booming, With Sales Up 30%
- Luxury pending home sales in West Palm Beach posted a larger gain than any other major metro in January, rising almost six times faster than non luxury sales.
- Luxury prices jumped 11%—more than double the national gain.
- West Palm Beach, which some call “Wall Street South,” has seen its luxury market skyrocket due to an influx of finance firms and wealthy out-of-towners.
