Bitcoin: ETF Outflows and Macro Headwinds Keep Bulls on the Back Foot

The first quarter of 2026 has been a tough period for 1057391. It is trying to show that it has a real role in the corporate world while also dealing with broader economic pressure.

For the first time in years, the crypto market is facing three major tests at the same time. These include money moving in and out of ETFs, changes in global investor risk appetite, especially linked to the , and uncertainty around the .

ETF Outflows Are Testing the Price Structure

One of the biggest signals in the Bitcoin market recently has been strong outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. A large one-day withdrawal from BlackRock’s IBIT fund (NASDAQ:IBIT) stood out and suggested that institutional demand has weakened in the short term. These flows show that even if Bitcoin continues to rise, the move will require stronger and more selective buying rather than easy liquidity.

As ETFs become a bigger part of the market, Bitcoin’s price is increasingly influenced by broader economic trends and portfolio decisions, not just crypto-specific factors. ETF outflows alone do not decide the overall trend, but they help explain why buying momentum fades quickly and why rallies often attract fresh selling pressure.

Macro Framework: Strong Dollar and Risk-Off Mode

Geopolitical tensions are pushing oil prices higher and supporting the US dollar, both of which tend to reduce global risk appetite. In this environment, Bitcoin continues to trade more like a high-risk asset than a safe haven. For now, strong macro pressure means the market is treating Bitcoin as something sensitive to liquidity and rate expectations, rather than as digital gold.

Signals from On-Chain: Long-Term Calm, Short-Term Volatility

As Bitcoin pulls back into the $65,000 to $68,000 range, on-chain data shows that large wallets have slowly started buying. This suggests the recent move may be more about clearing positions in the order book than a full panic sell-off.

Still, buying by large investors at these levels does not automatically mean the price has found a bottom. A stronger rebound is more likely if the broader economic backdrop turns supportive, especially if conditions improve for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is still moving sideways after the recent sharp drop. There has been a small bounce, but it remains weak. The price is still below the downward trend line and below the key exponential moving averages. This means any short term rise looks more like a temporary reaction than the start of a new uptrend.

The sharp fall at the start of February was not a slow pullback. It was a fast move that cleared out liquidity and pushed the price into a tight range. After such strong moves, markets usually go through two stages. First, they absorb the shock. Then, as the range tightens, they break out in a new direction. The current chart structure suggests Bitcoin is still in that consolidation phase before its next decisive move.

On the daily chart, the $76,000 to $78,000 zone stands out as a key resistance area based on Fibonacci levels and the current downtrend. If Bitcoin rises but fails to break above this range, the move will likely remain a temporary correction within the broader downtrend. A stronger shift in trend would require a move above $87,000, which aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci level and could act as a major turning point.

On the downside, $62,800 is the main support level to watch. Holding above this area is important to avoid another wave of selling. A daily close below it could open the door to a sharper drop toward the $55,000 region. At the same time, short and medium term exponential moving averages are still pointing lower. This means rallies may continue to face selling pressure near those averages. For the technical outlook to improve, Bitcoin would need to move above these averages and hold there with consistent daily closes.

Short-Term Inverse Flag: Continuation Pattern Risk

The inverse flag and the tightening triangle on the chart are common patterns that appear after a sharp drop. These formations usually signal a pause before the trend continues. Since the main trend is still down, the odds slightly favor a break to the downside. If that happens, the first target could be a retest of the $62,800 support level.

If the price breaks upward instead, the pattern would only lose its bearish bias if Bitcoin first moves above the short-term exponential moving averages and then breaks clearly through the $76,000 to $78,000 range with strong trading volume.

The Stoch RSI, which shows short-term momentum, is currently in overbought territory. This suggests buyers are still active. However, in a downtrend, overbought signals often warn that a rebound may be nearing its end. As long as the price stays below key averages and the downtrend line remains intact, the risk of pullbacks near resistance levels stays elevated.

Short Summary: Support-Resistance Map

Resistances

• $70,000: First critical short-term barrier
• $71,600: Short-term dynamic resistance
• $76,300: First threshold for an upward breakout
• $78,300: Strong intermediate resistance/buyback zone boundary
• $83,400-84,600: Main buyback band
• $87,025 (Fib 0.786): Main threshold for trend reversal

Supports

• 66,100: Lower band of the squeeze / first support
• 62,800 (Fib 1.272): Primary support in case of continued decline
• 55,700 (Fib 1.414): Lower target zone if the sell-off extends

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