Saudi oil exports to India are on course to book the strongest month since 2020, according to data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg.
India has been under intense pressure from the United States to stop importing from Russia, and while New Delhi has been wary of making any formal commitments, oil flows to one of the world’s largest importers of the commodity have changed.
Saudi oil shipments to India are seen at a daily average of between 1 million barrels and 1.1 million barrels, Kpler lead research analyst Sumit Ritolia said. This is almost the same rate as the rate at which India is importing Russian crude, the analyst noted. It is also evidence that Indian oil importers are not in a real rush to cut their Russian oil intake.
Kpler sees Russian oil exports to India at 1.2 million barrels daily this month, meaning the country would remain India’s single biggest oil supplier. However, 1.2 million barrels daily is significantly lower than import rates of over 2 million barrels daily over parts of the last three years and, according to Kpler, the flow would continue weakening going forward. For March, Kpler sees Russian oil exports to India at between 800,000 barrels and 1 million barrels daily, which suggests that Saudi Arabia could replace Russia as the top supplier, should Indian refiners continue buying more Saudi crude to replace grades from Russia.
Meanwhile, China’s oil imports from Russia were on track for an all-time high of over 2 million barrels per day in February as Indian buyers withdraw from Russian spot purchases and supply gets more heavily discounted for Chinese independent refiners. China is set to import 2.07-2.08 million barrels per day of oil from Russia this month, according to data from Vortexa and Kpler, cited by Reuters earlier this month.
